Traders see the tightest odds clustered around 23–25°C for Beijing’s September 24 high because official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and numerical models show a frontal boundary arriving that day, bringing increased cloud cover and light rain that will limit afternoon heating after several days of 29–31°C readings. Southerly flow is expected to shift northerly, advecting cooler, drier air while suppressing the urban heat-island effect and reducing solar insolation under overcast skies. Historical late-September climatology places Beijing’s average daily maximum near 26°C, but the current setup’s timing and precipitation intensity remain the key variables that could push the peak one or two degrees higher or lower. Updated model runs and local observations through the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range before market resolution.