The market-implied odds overwhelmingly favor 25°C as Hong Kong’s highest temperature on May 16, driven by official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming that maximum under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions and light southerly flow. This reading falls squarely within mid-May climatological norms, where daytime peaks average 25–27°C during the East Asian monsoon transition period. Numerical weather models issued in the preceding days showed strong consensus on these values with little spread, reflecting minimal convective activity or frontal influences. Any late-stage data revision by the Observatory remains the only realistic scenario that could shift resolution, though such adjustments occur infrequently.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Hong Kong on May 16?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 16?
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$312,572 Vol.
$312,572 Vol.
16 may 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$312,572 Vol.
$312,572 Vol.
16 may 2026
19°C or below
$20,243 Vol.
No
20°C
$12,423 Vol.
No
21°C
$12,291 Vol.
No
22°C
$6,633 Vol.
No
23°C
$4,802 Vol.
No
24°C
$37,336 Vol.
No
25°C
$82,493 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$43,374 Vol.
No
27°C
$40,057 Vol.
No
28°C
$25,641 Vol.
No
29°C or higher
$27,278 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market-implied odds overwhelmingly favor 25°C as Hong Kong’s highest temperature on May 16, driven by official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming that maximum under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions and light southerly flow. This reading falls squarely within mid-May climatological norms, where daytime peaks average 25–27°C during the East Asian monsoon transition period. Numerical weather models issued in the preceding days showed strong consensus on these values with little spread, reflecting minimal convective activity or frontal influences. Any late-stage data revision by the Observatory remains the only realistic scenario that could shift resolution, though such adjustments occur infrequently.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 14, 2026, 12:14 AM ET
Volumen
$312,572Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The market-implied odds overwhelmingly favor 25°C as Hong Kong’s highest temperature on May 16, driven by official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming that maximum under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions and light southerly flow. This reading falls squarely within mid-May climatological norms, where daytime peaks average 25–27°C during the East Asian monsoon transition period. Numerical weather models issued in the preceding days showed strong consensus on these values with little spread, reflecting minimal convective activity or frontal influences. Any late-stage data revision by the Observatory remains the only realistic scenario that could shift resolution, though such adjustments occur infrequently.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$312,572Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
The market-implied odds overwhelmingly favor 25°C as Hong Kong’s highest temperature on May 16, driven by official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming that maximum under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions and light southerly flow. This reading falls squarely within mid-May climatological norms, where daytime peaks average 25–27°C during the East Asian monsoon transition period. Numerical weather models issued in the preceding days showed strong consensus on these values with little spread, reflecting minimal convective activity or frontal influences. Any late-stage data revision by the Observatory remains the only realistic scenario that could shift resolution, though such adjustments occur infrequently.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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