Short-range forecast guidance from regional meteorological models shows Istanbul under stable high-pressure conditions with daytime maxima expected near 28°C on August 12, aligning closely with the market’s 56.5% implied probability for that outcome and 23.5% for 29°C. Persistent northerly flow off the Black Sea continues to moderate coastal temperatures through sea-breeze effects, limiting afternoon peaks despite seasonal solar forcing that normally supports 28–30°C averages in late summer. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, with minimal signals for stronger southerly advection or clear-sky amplification that would push readings to 30°C or above, reflected in their combined sub-10% odds. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will determine whether slight warming trends materialize or whether the current consensus for a 27–28°C daily maximum holds.