Official AEMET and ECMWF model consensus currently projects Madrid's maximum temperature on August 12 near 38–39 °C, directly underpinning the market's 58.5% implied probability for 39 °C and 28.5% for 38 °C. Recent ensemble runs show a stable high-pressure ridge maintaining clear skies and light winds, limiting cooling while daytime insolation drives surface heating above seasonal norms of roughly 32 °C. Short-range forecast uncertainty remains modest, with any last-minute shift in steering flow or cloud cover the primary variable that could alter the outcome before resolution. Traders are weighting these verified model outputs heavily given the two-day lead time.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 12 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 12 de agosto?
39°C 59%
38°C 29%
40°C 11%
37°C 3%
NUEVO
NUEVO
12 ago 2026
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
3%
38°C
29%
39°C
59%
40°C
11%
41°C
2%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
39°C 59%
38°C 29%
40°C 11%
37°C 3%
NUEVO
NUEVO
12 ago 2026
33°C or below
$485 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$417 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$461 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$204 Vol.
1%
37°C
$927 Vol.
3%
38°C
$2,776 Vol.
29%
39°C
$1,002 Vol.
59%
40°C
$761 Vol.
11%
41°C
$161 Vol.
2%
42°C
$400 Vol.
<1%
43°C or higher
$518 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official AEMET and ECMWF model consensus currently projects Madrid's maximum temperature on August 12 near 38–39 °C, directly underpinning the market's 58.5% implied probability for 39 °C and 28.5% for 38 °C. Recent ensemble runs show a stable high-pressure ridge maintaining clear skies and light winds, limiting cooling while daytime insolation drives surface heating above seasonal norms of roughly 32 °C. Short-range forecast uncertainty remains modest, with any last-minute shift in steering flow or cloud cover the primary variable that could alter the outcome before resolution. Traders are weighting these verified model outputs heavily given the two-day lead time.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volumen
$8,112Fecha de finalización
12 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official AEMET and ECMWF model consensus currently projects Madrid's maximum temperature on August 12 near 38–39 °C, directly underpinning the market's 58.5% implied probability for 39 °C and 28.5% for 38 °C. Recent ensemble runs show a stable high-pressure ridge maintaining clear skies and light winds, limiting cooling while daytime insolation drives surface heating above seasonal norms of roughly 32 °C. Short-range forecast uncertainty remains modest, with any last-minute shift in steering flow or cloud cover the primary variable that could alter the outcome before resolution. Traders are weighting these verified model outputs heavily given the two-day lead time.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$8,112Fecha de finalización
12 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 10, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official AEMET and ECMWF model consensus currently projects Madrid's maximum temperature on August 12 near 38–39 °C, directly underpinning the market's 58.5% implied probability for 39 °C and 28.5% for 38 °C. Recent ensemble runs show a stable high-pressure ridge maintaining clear skies and light winds, limiting cooling while daytime insolation drives surface heating above seasonal norms of roughly 32 °C. Short-range forecast uncertainty remains modest, with any last-minute shift in steering flow or cloud cover the primary variable that could alter the outcome before resolution. Traders are weighting these verified model outputs heavily given the two-day lead time.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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