Ralph Alvarado leads the KY-06 race with a 73.5% implied probability in trader consensus, reflecting the central Kentucky district's R+7 partisan voter index and its 15-point Trump margin in 2024. The open seat, vacated by Rep. Andy Barr's Senate bid, drew strong Republican primary support for Alvarado, a physician and former state senator endorsed by President Trump. Recent attack ads from a Beshear-aligned super PAC have targeted Alvarado's ties to former Gov. Matt Bevin and positions on Medicaid, while a Trump-aligned PAC has countered with spending on TV and mailers. Democratic nominee Zach Dembo, a Navy veteran and former federal prosecutor, has narrowed gaps in some internal polls but faces structural headwinds in a district that has not elected a Democrat in over a decade.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoKY-06 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
KY-06 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$35,227 Vol.
$35,227 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Ralph Alvarado (R)
74%
Zach Dembo (D)
26%
$35,227 Vol.
$35,227 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Ralph Alvarado (R)
$15,234 Vol.
74%
Zach Dembo (D)
$19,993 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ralph Alvarado leads the KY-06 race with a 73.5% implied probability in trader consensus, reflecting the central Kentucky district's R+7 partisan voter index and its 15-point Trump margin in 2024. The open seat, vacated by Rep. Andy Barr's Senate bid, drew strong Republican primary support for Alvarado, a physician and former state senator endorsed by President Trump. Recent attack ads from a Beshear-aligned super PAC have targeted Alvarado's ties to former Gov. Matt Bevin and positions on Medicaid, while a Trump-aligned PAC has countered with spending on TV and mailers. Democratic nominee Zach Dembo, a Navy veteran and former federal prosecutor, has narrowed gaps in some internal polls but faces structural headwinds in a district that has not elected a Democrat in over a decade.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$35,227Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ralph Alvarado leads the KY-06 race with a 73.5% implied probability in trader consensus, reflecting the central Kentucky district's R+7 partisan voter index and its 15-point Trump margin in 2024. The open seat, vacated by Rep. Andy Barr's Senate bid, drew strong Republican primary support for Alvarado, a physician and former state senator endorsed by President Trump. Recent attack ads from a Beshear-aligned super PAC have targeted Alvarado's ties to former Gov. Matt Bevin and positions on Medicaid, while a Trump-aligned PAC has countered with spending on TV and mailers. Democratic nominee Zach Dembo, a Navy veteran and former federal prosecutor, has narrowed gaps in some internal polls but faces structural headwinds in a district that has not elected a Democrat in over a decade.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$35,227Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ralph Alvarado leads the KY-06 race with a 73.5% implied probability in trader consensus, reflecting the central Kentucky district's R+7 partisan voter index and its 15-point Trump margin in 2024. The open seat, vacated by Rep. Andy Barr's Senate bid, drew strong Republican primary support for Alvarado, a physician and former state senator endorsed by President Trump. Recent attack ads from a Beshear-aligned super PAC have targeted Alvarado's ties to former Gov. Matt Bevin and positions on Medicaid, while a Trump-aligned PAC has countered with spending on TV and mailers. Democratic nominee Zach Dembo, a Navy veteran and former federal prosecutor, has narrowed gaps in some internal polls but faces structural headwinds in a district that has not elected a Democrat in over a decade.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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