**Latest model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles points to an overnight low near 21–22°C for Jinan on September 23 under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow.** This range aligns with climatological norms for late September and supports the closely matched market-implied odds, where the 12°C-or-below and 22°C-or-higher brackets each command roughly 43–48% probability while individual integers cluster around 20–22%. Key differentiating factors include uncertainty in radiational cooling under variable cloud cover, wind speeds, and the precise measurement at the Yaoqiang Airport station, where urban heat effects and microscale variations can shift the recorded minimum by 1–2°C. No significant synoptic systems are expected to alter the pattern before resolution, leaving traders focused on the final forecast updates from regional models.