Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding lead in the NJ-03 House race, reflected in the market's 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. The Burlington County-centered district features a Democratic registration edge and has supported Democratic candidates in recent cycles, giving Conaway structural advantages as he seeks a second term after winning the open seat in 2024. He faced no primary opposition, while Republican Michael McGuire secured his party's nomination in June. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, the consensus aligns with the seat's partisan baseline and limited competitiveness signals from race ratings. Late developments that could shift odds include a major scandal, health event affecting Conaway, or an unexpectedly strong national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout and margins in suburban areas.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes de NJ-03
Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes de NJ-03
$26,418 Vol.
$26,418 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
94%
Partido Republicano
7%
$26,418 Vol.
$26,418 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$12,895 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$13,523 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding lead in the NJ-03 House race, reflected in the market's 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. The Burlington County-centered district features a Democratic registration edge and has supported Democratic candidates in recent cycles, giving Conaway structural advantages as he seeks a second term after winning the open seat in 2024. He faced no primary opposition, while Republican Michael McGuire secured his party's nomination in June. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, the consensus aligns with the seat's partisan baseline and limited competitiveness signals from race ratings. Late developments that could shift odds include a major scandal, health event affecting Conaway, or an unexpectedly strong national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout and margins in suburban areas.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volumen
$26,418Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding lead in the NJ-03 House race, reflected in the market's 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. The Burlington County-centered district features a Democratic registration edge and has supported Democratic candidates in recent cycles, giving Conaway structural advantages as he seeks a second term after winning the open seat in 2024. He faced no primary opposition, while Republican Michael McGuire secured his party's nomination in June. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, the consensus aligns with the seat's partisan baseline and limited competitiveness signals from race ratings. Late developments that could shift odds include a major scandal, health event affecting Conaway, or an unexpectedly strong national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout and margins in suburban areas.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$26,418Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Herb Conaway holds a commanding lead in the NJ-03 House race, reflected in the market's 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. The Burlington County-centered district features a Democratic registration edge and has supported Democratic candidates in recent cycles, giving Conaway structural advantages as he seeks a second term after winning the open seat in 2024. He faced no primary opposition, while Republican Michael McGuire secured his party's nomination in June. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, the consensus aligns with the seat's partisan baseline and limited competitiveness signals from race ratings. Late developments that could shift odds include a major scandal, health event affecting Conaway, or an unexpectedly strong national Republican midterm wave boosting turnout and margins in suburban areas.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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