The Democratic hold on Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district rests on its suburban Philadelphia composition, which includes much of Montgomery County and carries a partisan voting index favoring Democrats by roughly eight points. Incumbent Madeleine Dean secured 59 percent in 2024 and faces only token primary opposition, while Republican Aurora Stuski remains an underfunded challenger whose campaign launched earlier this year. Traders price the seat as a 94 percent Democratic probability because historical turnout patterns, fundraising disparities, and the absence of competitive polling leave little room for an upset absent a major national shift or unforeseen candidate-specific development. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong Republican mobilization could still narrow the margin, though current evidence shows no such catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPA-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
PA-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$19,199 Vol.
$19,199 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
95%
Partido Republicano
6%
$19,199 Vol.
$19,199 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$6,741 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$12,459 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic hold on Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district rests on its suburban Philadelphia composition, which includes much of Montgomery County and carries a partisan voting index favoring Democrats by roughly eight points. Incumbent Madeleine Dean secured 59 percent in 2024 and faces only token primary opposition, while Republican Aurora Stuski remains an underfunded challenger whose campaign launched earlier this year. Traders price the seat as a 94 percent Democratic probability because historical turnout patterns, fundraising disparities, and the absence of competitive polling leave little room for an upset absent a major national shift or unforeseen candidate-specific development. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong Republican mobilization could still narrow the margin, though current evidence shows no such catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$19,199Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic hold on Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district rests on its suburban Philadelphia composition, which includes much of Montgomery County and carries a partisan voting index favoring Democrats by roughly eight points. Incumbent Madeleine Dean secured 59 percent in 2024 and faces only token primary opposition, while Republican Aurora Stuski remains an underfunded challenger whose campaign launched earlier this year. Traders price the seat as a 94 percent Democratic probability because historical turnout patterns, fundraising disparities, and the absence of competitive polling leave little room for an upset absent a major national shift or unforeseen candidate-specific development. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong Republican mobilization could still narrow the margin, though current evidence shows no such catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$19,199Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic hold on Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district rests on its suburban Philadelphia composition, which includes much of Montgomery County and carries a partisan voting index favoring Democrats by roughly eight points. Incumbent Madeleine Dean secured 59 percent in 2024 and faces only token primary opposition, while Republican Aurora Stuski remains an underfunded challenger whose campaign launched earlier this year. Traders price the seat as a 94 percent Democratic probability because historical turnout patterns, fundraising disparities, and the absence of competitive polling leave little room for an upset absent a major national shift or unforeseen candidate-specific development. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong Republican mobilization could still narrow the margin, though current evidence shows no such catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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