The closely matched market-implied odds around 50% for several lesser-known labs alongside Google at 35.5% highlight intense competition in the race for second-best AI lab by late November, driven by rapid large language model releases and benchmark gains across the sector. Traders appear to weigh factors such as demonstrated capabilities on key evaluations, developer ecosystem momentum, and strategic partnerships, while discounting frontrunners like OpenAI at just 4.2% due to its established lead. Recent model updates from labs including Anthropic, Meta, and DeepSeek have kept sentiment fluid, with regulatory scrutiny on AI safety and hardware constraints from Nvidia adding uncertainty to timelines. Upcoming developer conferences and new capability benchmarks could shift consensus before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGoogle 36%
Meta 22%
Moonshot 13.1%
Anthropic 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 nov 2026
36%
Meta
22%
Moonshot
13%
Anthropic
13%
StepFun
12%
Mistral
12%
Microsoft
11%
SpaceXAI
9%
Alibaba
7%
Nvidia
6%
OpenAI
14%
ByteDance
14%
Tencent
4%
Xiaomi
4%
Z.ai
4%
DeepSeek
4%
Amazon
4%
Thinky
4%
Meituan
4%
MiniMax
3%
Baidu
3%
Google 36%
Meta 22%
Moonshot 13.1%
Anthropic 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 nov 2026
$143 Vol.
36%
Meta
$174 Vol.
22%
Moonshot
$70 Vol.
13%
Anthropic
$233 Vol.
13%
StepFun
$59 Vol.
12%
Mistral
$59 Vol.
12%
Microsoft
$59 Vol.
11%
SpaceXAI
$70 Vol.
9%
Alibaba
$70 Vol.
7%
Nvidia
$70 Vol.
6%
OpenAI
$80 Vol.
14%
ByteDance
$80 Vol.
14%
Tencent
$70 Vol.
4%
Xiaomi
$70 Vol.
4%
Z.ai
$70 Vol.
4%
DeepSeek
$59 Vol.
4%
Amazon
$69 Vol.
4%
Thinky
$70 Vol.
4%
Meituan
$70 Vol.
4%
MiniMax
$70 Vol.
3%
Baidu
$70 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched market-implied odds around 50% for several lesser-known labs alongside Google at 35.5% highlight intense competition in the race for second-best AI lab by late November, driven by rapid large language model releases and benchmark gains across the sector. Traders appear to weigh factors such as demonstrated capabilities on key evaluations, developer ecosystem momentum, and strategic partnerships, while discounting frontrunners like OpenAI at just 4.2% due to its established lead. Recent model updates from labs including Anthropic, Meta, and DeepSeek have kept sentiment fluid, with regulatory scrutiny on AI safety and hardware constraints from Nvidia adding uncertainty to timelines. Upcoming developer conferences and new capability benchmarks could shift consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$1,789Fecha de finalización
1 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched market-implied odds around 50% for several lesser-known labs alongside Google at 35.5% highlight intense competition in the race for second-best AI lab by late November, driven by rapid large language model releases and benchmark gains across the sector. Traders appear to weigh factors such as demonstrated capabilities on key evaluations, developer ecosystem momentum, and strategic partnerships, while discounting frontrunners like OpenAI at just 4.2% due to its established lead. Recent model updates from labs including Anthropic, Meta, and DeepSeek have kept sentiment fluid, with regulatory scrutiny on AI safety and hardware constraints from Nvidia adding uncertainty to timelines. Upcoming developer conferences and new capability benchmarks could shift consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$1,789Fecha de finalización
1 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market-implied odds around 50% for several lesser-known labs alongside Google at 35.5% highlight intense competition in the race for second-best AI lab by late November, driven by rapid large language model releases and benchmark gains across the sector. Traders appear to weigh factors such as demonstrated capabilities on key evaluations, developer ecosystem momentum, and strategic partnerships, while discounting frontrunners like OpenAI at just 4.2% due to its established lead. Recent model updates from labs including Anthropic, Meta, and DeepSeek have kept sentiment fluid, with regulatory scrutiny on AI safety and hardware constraints from Nvidia adding uncertainty to timelines. Upcoming developer conferences and new capability benchmarks could shift consensus before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes