Traders see a fragmented race for third place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by late November because no single lab holds a durable edge two months out. Anthropic’s Claude variants currently top the arena math category with the highest Elo ratings, yet Google’s Gemini models sit close behind while Z.ai, Alibaba’s Qwen series, and Moonshot’s Kimi releases post competitive scores on recent AIME and FrontierMath snapshots. Chinese labs benefit from fast iteration cycles and strong open-weight math performance, keeping their contracts elevated alongside “Other” at 50 percent implied probability. Historical monthly leaderboard turnover and the pace of new model drops before year-end create room for displacement, which is why even established players like OpenAI and Anthropic trade at single-digit odds for the specific third-place slot.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoDeepSeek 36.8%
Tencent 35.2%
Google 33%
Alibaba 22.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 nov 2026
DeepSeek
37%
Tencent
35%
33%
Alibaba
22%
Z.ai
19%
Amazon
18%
Moonshot
8%
SpaceXAI
7%
Nvidia
7%
Meta
6%
Baidu
5%
Anthropic
5%
Xiaomi
4%
OpenAI
4%
StepFun
4%
Microsoft
3%
Mistral
1%
Thinky
1%
MiniMax
1%
Meituan
1%
Bytedance
1%
DeepSeek 36.8%
Tencent 35.2%
Google 33%
Alibaba 22.0%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 nov 2026
DeepSeek
$174 Vol.
37%
Tencent
$97 Vol.
35%
$484 Vol.
33%
Alibaba
$563 Vol.
22%
Z.ai
$299 Vol.
19%
Amazon
$238 Vol.
18%
Moonshot
$175 Vol.
8%
SpaceXAI
$143 Vol.
7%
Nvidia
$153 Vol.
7%
Meta
$97 Vol.
6%
Baidu
$105 Vol.
5%
Anthropic
$121 Vol.
5%
Xiaomi
$328 Vol.
4%
OpenAI
$103 Vol.
4%
StepFun
$862 Vol.
4%
Microsoft
$102 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$163 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$127 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$110 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$97 Vol.
1%
Bytedance
$148 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a fragmented race for third place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by late November because no single lab holds a durable edge two months out. Anthropic’s Claude variants currently top the arena math category with the highest Elo ratings, yet Google’s Gemini models sit close behind while Z.ai, Alibaba’s Qwen series, and Moonshot’s Kimi releases post competitive scores on recent AIME and FrontierMath snapshots. Chinese labs benefit from fast iteration cycles and strong open-weight math performance, keeping their contracts elevated alongside “Other” at 50 percent implied probability. Historical monthly leaderboard turnover and the pace of new model drops before year-end create room for displacement, which is why even established players like OpenAI and Anthropic trade at single-digit odds for the specific third-place slot.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volumen
$4,688Fecha de finalización
1 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a fragmented race for third place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by late November because no single lab holds a durable edge two months out. Anthropic’s Claude variants currently top the arena math category with the highest Elo ratings, yet Google’s Gemini models sit close behind while Z.ai, Alibaba’s Qwen series, and Moonshot’s Kimi releases post competitive scores on recent AIME and FrontierMath snapshots. Chinese labs benefit from fast iteration cycles and strong open-weight math performance, keeping their contracts elevated alongside “Other” at 50 percent implied probability. Historical monthly leaderboard turnover and the pace of new model drops before year-end create room for displacement, which is why even established players like OpenAI and Anthropic trade at single-digit odds for the specific third-place slot.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$4,688Fecha de finalización
1 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...Traders see a fragmented race for third place on the Text Arena Math leaderboard by late November because no single lab holds a durable edge two months out. Anthropic’s Claude variants currently top the arena math category with the highest Elo ratings, yet Google’s Gemini models sit close behind while Z.ai, Alibaba’s Qwen series, and Moonshot’s Kimi releases post competitive scores on recent AIME and FrontierMath snapshots. Chinese labs benefit from fast iteration cycles and strong open-weight math performance, keeping their contracts elevated alongside “Other” at 50 percent implied probability. Historical monthly leaderboard turnover and the pace of new model drops before year-end create room for displacement, which is why even established players like OpenAI and Anthropic trade at single-digit odds for the specific third-place slot.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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