Incumbent Republican Bill Hagerty holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Tennessee Senate race because the state has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 2006 and Donald Trump carried it by nearly 30 points in 2024. Hagerty, unopposed in the August Republican primary, benefits from strong fundraising and name recognition after his 2020 victory over the same Democratic nominee, Marquita Bradshaw, by 27 points. Bradshaw secured her party's nomination in a multi-candidate primary but faces the same structural headwinds, with all major forecasters rating the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus on these probabilities reflects the limited path for an upset absent a major national realignment, late-breaking scandal, or health event affecting the incumbent before November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones al Senado de Tennessee
Ganador de las elecciones al Senado de Tennessee
$29,907 Vol.
$29,907 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Bill Hagerty (R)
96%
Marquita Bradshaw (D)
3%
$29,907 Vol.
$29,907 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Bill Hagerty (R)
$19,518 Vol.
96%
Marquita Bradshaw (D)
$10,390 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Bill Hagerty holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Tennessee Senate race because the state has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 2006 and Donald Trump carried it by nearly 30 points in 2024. Hagerty, unopposed in the August Republican primary, benefits from strong fundraising and name recognition after his 2020 victory over the same Democratic nominee, Marquita Bradshaw, by 27 points. Bradshaw secured her party's nomination in a multi-candidate primary but faces the same structural headwinds, with all major forecasters rating the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus on these probabilities reflects the limited path for an upset absent a major national realignment, late-breaking scandal, or health event affecting the incumbent before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volumen
$29,907Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Bill Hagerty holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Tennessee Senate race because the state has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 2006 and Donald Trump carried it by nearly 30 points in 2024. Hagerty, unopposed in the August Republican primary, benefits from strong fundraising and name recognition after his 2020 victory over the same Democratic nominee, Marquita Bradshaw, by 27 points. Bradshaw secured her party's nomination in a multi-candidate primary but faces the same structural headwinds, with all major forecasters rating the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus on these probabilities reflects the limited path for an upset absent a major national realignment, late-breaking scandal, or health event affecting the incumbent before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$29,907Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Bill Hagerty holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Tennessee Senate race because the state has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 2006 and Donald Trump carried it by nearly 30 points in 2024. Hagerty, unopposed in the August Republican primary, benefits from strong fundraising and name recognition after his 2020 victory over the same Democratic nominee, Marquita Bradshaw, by 27 points. Bradshaw secured her party's nomination in a multi-candidate primary but faces the same structural headwinds, with all major forecasters rating the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus on these probabilities reflects the limited path for an upset absent a major national realignment, late-breaking scandal, or health event affecting the incumbent before November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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