Industry tracking from BoxOffice Pro and analysts pegs The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's third-weekend domestic gross at $35-45 million—a roughly 50% drop from its $69 million second-weekend hold—cementing trader consensus behind the under-$44 million outcome at 95.8% implied probability. This reflects softer legs than the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie, which posted a milder 35% decline to $60 million in its frame three, amid mixed critical reception (44% Rotten Tomatoes, 37 Metacritic) despite an A- CinemaScore and strong audience scores. Light competition from holdovers like Project Hail Mary bolsters the frontrunner, but an upset could materialize via superior family turnout, positive word-of-mouth surge, or upward tracking revisions exceeding 48% drop thresholds before Friday's start.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3er fin de semana de taquilla
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3er fin de semana de taquilla
<44m 96.0%
44-48 millones 3.6%
48-52 millones <1%
>52 millones <1%
$108,530 Vol.
$108,530 Vol.
<44m
96%
44-48 millones
4%
48-52 millones
1%
>52 millones
1%
<44m 96.0%
44-48 millones 3.6%
48-52 millones <1%
>52 millones <1%
$108,530 Vol.
$108,530 Vol.
<44m
96%
44-48 millones
4%
48-52 millones
1%
>52 millones
1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado abierto: Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Fuente de resolución
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Fuente de resolución
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Industry tracking from BoxOffice Pro and analysts pegs The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's third-weekend domestic gross at $35-45 million—a roughly 50% drop from its $69 million second-weekend hold—cementing trader consensus behind the under-$44 million outcome at 95.8% implied probability. This reflects softer legs than the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie, which posted a milder 35% decline to $60 million in its frame three, amid mixed critical reception (44% Rotten Tomatoes, 37 Metacritic) despite an A- CinemaScore and strong audience scores. Light competition from holdovers like Project Hail Mary bolsters the frontrunner, but an upset could materialize via superior family turnout, positive word-of-mouth surge, or upward tracking revisions exceeding 48% drop thresholds before Friday's start.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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