Turkey’s potential return to the F-35 program remains blocked by U.S. statutory requirements under the FY2020 NDAA and CAATSA, which prohibit transfers until Ankara no longer possesses its Russian S-400 systems and the administration certifies compliance to Congress. President Trump’s July 2026 statements alongside Turkish President Erdogan at the NATO summit in Ankara raised expectations of sanctions relief and possible sales, with administration officials reviewing options including third-party transfer of the S-400 batteries. However, a July 22 State Department letter confirmed Turkey has not met the legal conditions. As of mid-August 2026, the S-400 systems remain in Turkish hands with no certification issued, though talks continue on engine sales and diplomatic resolutions. Key variables include progress on S-400 disposition, congressional approval, and objections from Greece and Israel.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$43,428 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 de diciembre de 2026
10%
30 de junio de 2027
25%
$43,428 Vol.
31 de diciembre de 2026
$31,959 Vol.
10%
30 de junio de 2027
$11,468 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.Turkey’s potential return to the F-35 program remains blocked by U.S. statutory requirements under the FY2020 NDAA and CAATSA, which prohibit transfers until Ankara no longer possesses its Russian S-400 systems and the administration certifies compliance to Congress. President Trump’s July 2026 statements alongside Turkish President Erdogan at the NATO summit in Ankara raised expectations of sanctions relief and possible sales, with administration officials reviewing options including third-party transfer of the S-400 batteries. However, a July 22 State Department letter confirmed Turkey has not met the legal conditions. As of mid-August 2026, the S-400 systems remain in Turkish hands with no certification issued, though talks continue on engine sales and diplomatic resolutions. Key variables include progress on S-400 disposition, congressional approval, and objections from Greece and Israel.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ET
Volumen
$43,428Fecha de finalización
1 jul 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.Turkey’s potential return to the F-35 program remains blocked by U.S. statutory requirements under the FY2020 NDAA and CAATSA, which prohibit transfers until Ankara no longer possesses its Russian S-400 systems and the administration certifies compliance to Congress. President Trump’s July 2026 statements alongside Turkish President Erdogan at the NATO summit in Ankara raised expectations of sanctions relief and possible sales, with administration officials reviewing options including third-party transfer of the S-400 batteries. However, a July 22 State Department letter confirmed Turkey has not met the legal conditions. As of mid-August 2026, the S-400 systems remain in Turkish hands with no certification issued, though talks continue on engine sales and diplomatic resolutions. Key variables include progress on S-400 disposition, congressional approval, and objections from Greece and Israel.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Volumen
$43,428Fecha de finalización
1 jul 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkey’s potential return to the F-35 program remains blocked by U.S. statutory requirements under the FY2020 NDAA and CAATSA, which prohibit transfers until Ankara no longer possesses its Russian S-400 systems and the administration certifies compliance to Congress. President Trump’s July 2026 statements alongside Turkish President Erdogan at the NATO summit in Ankara raised expectations of sanctions relief and possible sales, with administration officials reviewing options including third-party transfer of the S-400 batteries. However, a July 22 State Department letter confirmed Turkey has not met the legal conditions. As of mid-August 2026, the S-400 systems remain in Turkish hands with no certification issued, though talks continue on engine sales and diplomatic resolutions. Key variables include progress on S-400 disposition, congressional approval, and objections from Greece and Israel.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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