Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including the incumbent's 75 percent share in 2024. Long-serving Representative Gwen Moore, first elected in 2004 and seeking another term, benefits from name recognition, established fundraising, and the district's Milwaukee County base of urban and suburban voters. Republican primary contenders face structural barriers in a seat rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters, with limited recent polling or campaign activity suggesting any shift. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Democratic nominee aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments such as an incumbent withdrawal due to health or ethics issues, or an unusually strong Republican nominee backed by national resources, remain the primary paths that could narrow the gap before the November 2026 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoWI-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
WI-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$28,045 Vol.
$28,045 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
94%
Partido Republicano
5%
$28,045 Vol.
$28,045 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$8,837 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$19,208 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including the incumbent's 75 percent share in 2024. Long-serving Representative Gwen Moore, first elected in 2004 and seeking another term, benefits from name recognition, established fundraising, and the district's Milwaukee County base of urban and suburban voters. Republican primary contenders face structural barriers in a seat rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters, with limited recent polling or campaign activity suggesting any shift. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Democratic nominee aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments such as an incumbent withdrawal due to health or ethics issues, or an unusually strong Republican nominee backed by national resources, remain the primary paths that could narrow the gap before the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volumen
$28,045Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including the incumbent's 75 percent share in 2024. Long-serving Representative Gwen Moore, first elected in 2004 and seeking another term, benefits from name recognition, established fundraising, and the district's Milwaukee County base of urban and suburban voters. Republican primary contenders face structural barriers in a seat rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters, with limited recent polling or campaign activity suggesting any shift. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Democratic nominee aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments such as an incumbent withdrawal due to health or ethics issues, or an unusually strong Republican nominee backed by national resources, remain the primary paths that could narrow the gap before the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$28,045Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including the incumbent's 75 percent share in 2024. Long-serving Representative Gwen Moore, first elected in 2004 and seeking another term, benefits from name recognition, established fundraising, and the district's Milwaukee County base of urban and suburban voters. Republican primary contenders face structural barriers in a seat rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters, with limited recent polling or campaign activity suggesting any shift. Trader consensus at 93.5 percent for the Democratic nominee aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments such as an incumbent withdrawal due to health or ethics issues, or an unusually strong Republican nominee backed by national resources, remain the primary paths that could narrow the gap before the November 2026 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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