Trader consensus reflects a 96.5% implied probability that Donald Trump will not resign by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of major political catalysts such as health disclosures, legal rulings, or internal party pressures that historically prompt early departures from office. Through mid-September 2026, no verifiable developments have emerged to alter expectations around term completion or succession dynamics. Institutional factors, including established patterns of presidential service and the lack of reported executive branch instability, reinforce this positioning. Late-breaking events including sudden medical issues, significant scandals, or unexpected shifts in congressional or cabinet alignments remain the primary scenarios that could still move the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
4% probabilidad
$538,890 Vol.
$538,890 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
4% probabilidad
$538,890 Vol.
$538,890 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 96.5% implied probability that Donald Trump will not resign by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of major political catalysts such as health disclosures, legal rulings, or internal party pressures that historically prompt early departures from office. Through mid-September 2026, no verifiable developments have emerged to alter expectations around term completion or succession dynamics. Institutional factors, including established patterns of presidential service and the lack of reported executive branch instability, reinforce this positioning. Late-breaking events including sudden medical issues, significant scandals, or unexpected shifts in congressional or cabinet alignments remain the primary scenarios that could still move the market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
Volumen
$538,890Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 96.5% implied probability that Donald Trump will not resign by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of major political catalysts such as health disclosures, legal rulings, or internal party pressures that historically prompt early departures from office. Through mid-September 2026, no verifiable developments have emerged to alter expectations around term completion or succession dynamics. Institutional factors, including established patterns of presidential service and the lack of reported executive branch instability, reinforce this positioning. Late-breaking events including sudden medical issues, significant scandals, or unexpected shifts in congressional or cabinet alignments remain the primary scenarios that could still move the market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$538,890Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Trader consensus reflects a 96.5% implied probability that Donald Trump will not resign by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of major political catalysts such as health disclosures, legal rulings, or internal party pressures that historically prompt early departures from office. Through mid-September 2026, no verifiable developments have emerged to alter expectations around term completion or succession dynamics. Institutional factors, including established patterns of presidential service and the lack of reported executive branch instability, reinforce this positioning. Late-breaking events including sudden medical issues, significant scandals, or unexpected shifts in congressional or cabinet alignments remain the primary scenarios that could still move the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes