The near-certain trader consensus that Donald Trump will not resign before 2027 stems from the historical rarity of presidential resignations, which have occurred only once in modern U.S. history under intense pressure, combined with the incumbent's repeated public commitments to serving a full term. As of mid-2026, no major legislative votes, health announcements, or institutional actions have emerged to alter this baseline, and Trump's position within his party and the Electoral College framework shows no signs of erosion that typically precede early exits. While the wisdom of crowds reflected in these odds accounts for low-probability triggers such as sudden medical events, credible legal developments, or unprecedented party pressure, such scenarios remain distant from current verified developments and would require extraordinary catalysts to shift probabilities materially.