Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven mainly by the extremely limited time remaining for the planning, mobilization, and execution of a major amphibious assault. Cross-strait military postures show continued exercises and surveillance but no verified surge in invasion-ready forces or logistics over the past month. Diplomatic engagement and intelligence assessments reflect no acute crisis triggering immediate action. Historical patterns indicate that such operations require extended preparation periods far exceeding the current window. Unlikely late developments, including an unforeseen escalation or miscalculation by either side, remain the only realistic variables that could alter the outcome before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
<1% probabilidad
$2,120,328 Vol.
$2,120,328 Vol.
30 sep 2026
Sí
<1% probabilidad
$2,120,328 Vol.
$2,120,328 Vol.
30 sep 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven mainly by the extremely limited time remaining for the planning, mobilization, and execution of a major amphibious assault. Cross-strait military postures show continued exercises and surveillance but no verified surge in invasion-ready forces or logistics over the past month. Diplomatic engagement and intelligence assessments reflect no acute crisis triggering immediate action. Historical patterns indicate that such operations require extended preparation periods far exceeding the current window. Unlikely late developments, including an unforeseen escalation or miscalculation by either side, remain the only realistic variables that could alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volumen
$2,120,328Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven mainly by the extremely limited time remaining for the planning, mobilization, and execution of a major amphibious assault. Cross-strait military postures show continued exercises and surveillance but no verified surge in invasion-ready forces or logistics over the past month. Diplomatic engagement and intelligence assessments reflect no acute crisis triggering immediate action. Historical patterns indicate that such operations require extended preparation periods far exceeding the current window. Unlikely late developments, including an unforeseen escalation or miscalculation by either side, remain the only realistic variables that could alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$2,120,328Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven mainly by the extremely limited time remaining for the planning, mobilization, and execution of a major amphibious assault. Cross-strait military postures show continued exercises and surveillance but no verified surge in invasion-ready forces or logistics over the past month. Diplomatic engagement and intelligence assessments reflect no acute crisis triggering immediate action. Historical patterns indicate that such operations require extended preparation periods far exceeding the current window. Unlikely late developments, including an unforeseen escalation or miscalculation by either side, remain the only realistic variables that could alter the outcome before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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