Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan before September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any verified large-scale military mobilization, amphibious exercises, or official statements indicating imminent action in the past 30 days. Deterrence from U.S. and allied naval presence in the region, combined with China's continued emphasis on economic and gray-zone pressure rather than direct conflict, reinforces this consensus. Historical patterns show Beijing favoring incremental coercion over high-risk invasion timelines. Late-breaking developments that could still shift odds include sudden escalations from cross-strait incidents, unexpected leadership announcements, or rapid diplomatic breakdowns, though such triggers remain low-probability within the narrow remaining window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
<1% probabilidad
$2,120,074 Vol.
$2,120,074 Vol.
30 sep 2026
Sí
<1% probabilidad
$2,120,074 Vol.
$2,120,074 Vol.
30 sep 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan before September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any verified large-scale military mobilization, amphibious exercises, or official statements indicating imminent action in the past 30 days. Deterrence from U.S. and allied naval presence in the region, combined with China's continued emphasis on economic and gray-zone pressure rather than direct conflict, reinforces this consensus. Historical patterns show Beijing favoring incremental coercion over high-risk invasion timelines. Late-breaking developments that could still shift odds include sudden escalations from cross-strait incidents, unexpected leadership announcements, or rapid diplomatic breakdowns, though such triggers remain low-probability within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volumen
$2,120,074Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan before September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any verified large-scale military mobilization, amphibious exercises, or official statements indicating imminent action in the past 30 days. Deterrence from U.S. and allied naval presence in the region, combined with China's continued emphasis on economic and gray-zone pressure rather than direct conflict, reinforces this consensus. Historical patterns show Beijing favoring incremental coercion over high-risk invasion timelines. Late-breaking developments that could still shift odds include sudden escalations from cross-strait incidents, unexpected leadership announcements, or rapid diplomatic breakdowns, though such triggers remain low-probability within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$2,120,074Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan before September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any verified large-scale military mobilization, amphibious exercises, or official statements indicating imminent action in the past 30 days. Deterrence from U.S. and allied naval presence in the region, combined with China's continued emphasis on economic and gray-zone pressure rather than direct conflict, reinforces this consensus. Historical patterns show Beijing favoring incremental coercion over high-risk invasion timelines. Late-breaking developments that could still shift odds include sudden escalations from cross-strait incidents, unexpected leadership announcements, or rapid diplomatic breakdowns, though such triggers remain low-probability within the narrow remaining window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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