Trader consensus favors no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by end-2027 at 75.5% implied probability, driven by sustained U.S. military deterrence via arms sales, naval transits, and the Taiwan Relations Act, alongside doubts over People's Liberation Army readiness despite Xi Jinping's 2027 modernization goals. Recent PLA exercises following President Lai Ching-te's October National Day speech and earlier post-inauguration drills in May remain calibrated responses short of invasion indicators, per U.S. Defense Department assessments. China's economic slowdown, global semiconductor reliance on Taiwan, and high war costs further temper escalation risks, with no primary source signals of imminent cross-strait attack amid ongoing U.S.-China diplomatic channels.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSí
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
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NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volumen
$79Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2027Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$79Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2027Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by end-2027 at 75.5% implied probability, driven by sustained U.S. military deterrence via arms sales, naval transits, and the Taiwan Relations Act, alongside doubts over People's Liberation Army readiness despite Xi Jinping's 2027 modernization goals. Recent PLA exercises following President Lai Ching-te's October National Day speech and earlier post-inauguration drills in May remain calibrated responses short of invasion indicators, per U.S. Defense Department assessments. China's economic slowdown, global semiconductor reliance on Taiwan, and high war costs further temper escalation risks, with no primary source signals of imminent cross-strait attack amid ongoing U.S.-China diplomatic channels.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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