Extensive planetary defense monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS Sentry system and ESA surveys has detected no near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of producing a 1-megaton or greater airburst in 2026, driving the 98.6% market-implied odds for “No.” Historical frequency places such events on century-scale intervals, with the 2013 Chelyabinsk bolide at roughly half that yield remaining the benchmark in modern records. Continuous NEO cataloging covers over 90% of hazardous bodies above 140 meters, while smaller undetected meteoroids rarely reach megaton energies. Traders price in this verified absence of threats rather than speculation. Residual uncertainty stems from potential long-period comets entering the inner solar system late or rare trajectory modeling errors, though both face steep observational and technical barriers before December 31 resolution.