Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray, who captured the Central Valley seat by fewer than 200 votes in 2024, benefits from a district now rated lean Democratic following Proposition 50 redistricting that shifted its partisan voting index slightly in his favor. The June 2 jungle primary advanced Gray alongside Republican Kevin Lincoln, with Gray demonstrating stronger fundraising and party infrastructure. Forecasters including Cook Political Report and Inside Elections maintain lean or tilt Democratic assessments, reflecting the seat's underlying math and Gray's incumbency advantage heading into the November general election. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee an 87.5 percent implied probability of victory.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCA-13 House Election Winner
CA-13 House Election Winner
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 nov 2026
Democratic Party
86%
Republican Party
15%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$862 Vol.
86%
Republican Party
$1,328 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray, who captured the Central Valley seat by fewer than 200 votes in 2024, benefits from a district now rated lean Democratic following Proposition 50 redistricting that shifted its partisan voting index slightly in his favor. The June 2 jungle primary advanced Gray alongside Republican Kevin Lincoln, with Gray demonstrating stronger fundraising and party infrastructure. Forecasters including Cook Political Report and Inside Elections maintain lean or tilt Democratic assessments, reflecting the seat's underlying math and Gray's incumbency advantage heading into the November general election. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee an 87.5 percent implied probability of victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ET
Volume
$2,190Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray, who captured the Central Valley seat by fewer than 200 votes in 2024, benefits from a district now rated lean Democratic following Proposition 50 redistricting that shifted its partisan voting index slightly in his favor. The June 2 jungle primary advanced Gray alongside Republican Kevin Lincoln, with Gray demonstrating stronger fundraising and party infrastructure. Forecasters including Cook Political Report and Inside Elections maintain lean or tilt Democratic assessments, reflecting the seat's underlying math and Gray's incumbency advantage heading into the November general election. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee an 87.5 percent implied probability of victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$2,190Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray, who captured the Central Valley seat by fewer than 200 votes in 2024, benefits from a district now rated lean Democratic following Proposition 50 redistricting that shifted its partisan voting index slightly in his favor. The June 2 jungle primary advanced Gray alongside Republican Kevin Lincoln, with Gray demonstrating stronger fundraising and party infrastructure. Forecasters including Cook Political Report and Inside Elections maintain lean or tilt Democratic assessments, reflecting the seat's underlying math and Gray's incumbency advantage heading into the November general election. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee an 87.5 percent implied probability of victory.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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