California’s 11th congressional district remains a heavily Democratic seat following Nancy Pelosi’s retirement, with voter registration and past results reflecting a strong partisan tilt. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced two Democratic candidates—state Sen. Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan—setting up an all-Democratic general election on November 3. Trader consensus at 97.5% for the Democratic Party reflects the absence of a Republican nominee and the district’s structural advantages, including consistent Democratic performance in prior cycles. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in turnout, voter registration, or external events within the remaining campaign window, outcomes viewed by markets as low-probability given historical patterns in comparable safe Democratic districts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-11 House Election Winner
CA-11 House Election Winner
$21,763 Vol.
$21,763 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
3%
$21,763 Vol.
$21,763 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,980 Vol.
97%
Republican Party
$6,783 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 11th congressional district remains a heavily Democratic seat following Nancy Pelosi’s retirement, with voter registration and past results reflecting a strong partisan tilt. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced two Democratic candidates—state Sen. Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan—setting up an all-Democratic general election on November 3. Trader consensus at 97.5% for the Democratic Party reflects the absence of a Republican nominee and the district’s structural advantages, including consistent Democratic performance in prior cycles. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in turnout, voter registration, or external events within the remaining campaign window, outcomes viewed by markets as low-probability given historical patterns in comparable safe Democratic districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$21,763End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 11th congressional district remains a heavily Democratic seat following Nancy Pelosi’s retirement, with voter registration and past results reflecting a strong partisan tilt. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced two Democratic candidates—state Sen. Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan—setting up an all-Democratic general election on November 3. Trader consensus at 97.5% for the Democratic Party reflects the absence of a Republican nominee and the district’s structural advantages, including consistent Democratic performance in prior cycles. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in turnout, voter registration, or external events within the remaining campaign window, outcomes viewed by markets as low-probability given historical patterns in comparable safe Democratic districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,763End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California’s 11th congressional district remains a heavily Democratic seat following Nancy Pelosi’s retirement, with voter registration and past results reflecting a strong partisan tilt. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced two Democratic candidates—state Sen. Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan—setting up an all-Democratic general election on November 3. Trader consensus at 97.5% for the Democratic Party reflects the absence of a Republican nominee and the district’s structural advantages, including consistent Democratic performance in prior cycles. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in turnout, voter registration, or external events within the remaining campaign window, outcomes viewed by markets as low-probability given historical patterns in comparable safe Democratic districts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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