Texas's 30th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean rooted in its Dallas-area demographics and consistent voting patterns in recent cycles. Jasmine Crockett's retirement to pursue a Senate bid opened the seat, yet the March 2026 Democratic primary produced a clear nominee in Frederick Haynes III, whose victory aligned with pre-election ratings classifying the race as solidly Democratic. Republican primary voters selected Everett Jackson after a May runoff, but the nominee faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic candidates have historically secured large margins. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 95 percent, reflecting the limited path for an upset absent major shifts in turnout, late developments, or broader national conditions before the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-30 House Election Winner
TX-30 House Election Winner
$21,735 Vol.
$21,735 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$21,735 Vol.
$21,735 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,578 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$16,157 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 30th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean rooted in its Dallas-area demographics and consistent voting patterns in recent cycles. Jasmine Crockett's retirement to pursue a Senate bid opened the seat, yet the March 2026 Democratic primary produced a clear nominee in Frederick Haynes III, whose victory aligned with pre-election ratings classifying the race as solidly Democratic. Republican primary voters selected Everett Jackson after a May runoff, but the nominee faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic candidates have historically secured large margins. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 95 percent, reflecting the limited path for an upset absent major shifts in turnout, late developments, or broader national conditions before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$21,735End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 30th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean rooted in its Dallas-area demographics and consistent voting patterns in recent cycles. Jasmine Crockett's retirement to pursue a Senate bid opened the seat, yet the March 2026 Democratic primary produced a clear nominee in Frederick Haynes III, whose victory aligned with pre-election ratings classifying the race as solidly Democratic. Republican primary voters selected Everett Jackson after a May runoff, but the nominee faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic candidates have historically secured large margins. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 95 percent, reflecting the limited path for an upset absent major shifts in turnout, late developments, or broader national conditions before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,735End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's 30th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean rooted in its Dallas-area demographics and consistent voting patterns in recent cycles. Jasmine Crockett's retirement to pursue a Senate bid opened the seat, yet the March 2026 Democratic primary produced a clear nominee in Frederick Haynes III, whose victory aligned with pre-election ratings classifying the race as solidly Democratic. Republican primary voters selected Everett Jackson after a May runoff, but the nominee faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic candidates have historically secured large margins. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 95 percent, reflecting the limited path for an upset absent major shifts in turnout, late developments, or broader national conditions before the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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