Incumbent Republican John Carter's comfortable primary victory in March 2026, securing the nomination with nearly 60% of the vote in Texas's 31st congressional district, reinforces trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 85.5%. The seat's established partisan profile, reflected in prior election margins exceeding 20 points for GOP candidates, limits the Democratic nominee Justin Early's path despite his primary win. With the general election set for November, the district's voting patterns and absence of major shifts in recent months sustain the implied probability gap, as national midterm dynamics have yet to produce notable local catalysts that could narrow the contest.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTX-31 Vincitore delle elezioni presidenziali
TX-31 Vincitore delle elezioni presidenziali
$14,261 Vol.
$14,261 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
86%
Partito Democratico
16%
$14,261 Vol.
$14,261 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
$8,990 Vol.
86%
Partito Democratico
$5,271 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican John Carter's comfortable primary victory in March 2026, securing the nomination with nearly 60% of the vote in Texas's 31st congressional district, reinforces trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 85.5%. The seat's established partisan profile, reflected in prior election margins exceeding 20 points for GOP candidates, limits the Democratic nominee Justin Early's path despite his primary win. With the general election set for November, the district's voting patterns and absence of major shifts in recent months sustain the implied probability gap, as national midterm dynamics have yet to produce notable local catalysts that could narrow the contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$14,261Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican John Carter's comfortable primary victory in March 2026, securing the nomination with nearly 60% of the vote in Texas's 31st congressional district, reinforces trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 85.5%. The seat's established partisan profile, reflected in prior election margins exceeding 20 points for GOP candidates, limits the Democratic nominee Justin Early's path despite his primary win. With the general election set for November, the district's voting patterns and absence of major shifts in recent months sustain the implied probability gap, as national midterm dynamics have yet to produce notable local catalysts that could narrow the contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$14,261Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican John Carter's comfortable primary victory in March 2026, securing the nomination with nearly 60% of the vote in Texas's 31st congressional district, reinforces trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 85.5%. The seat's established partisan profile, reflected in prior election margins exceeding 20 points for GOP candidates, limits the Democratic nominee Justin Early's path despite his primary win. With the general election set for November, the district's voting patterns and absence of major shifts in recent months sustain the implied probability gap, as national midterm dynamics have yet to produce notable local catalysts that could narrow the contest.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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