Jared Golden announces he will not seek re-election to U.S. House

Jared Golden plunges to 0%50%

Jared Golden announced he would not seek re-election, opening the 2nd Congressional District seat and influencing Jordan Wood's decision to switch races.

Jordan Wood drops out of Senate race to run for U.S. House seat

Jordan Wood dips to 0%2%

Jordan Wood ended his Senate campaign to run for Maine's 2nd Congressional District, reflecting the consolidation of the Senate primary around Platner and Mills' exit.

Graham Platner emerges as clear favorite in Maine Democratic Senate primary

Graham Platner rises to 99%1%

Following Mills' withdrawal, Platner's chances surged to near certainty, reflected in the market price reaching 99%, as he became the presumptive nominee to challenge Republican Sen. Susan Collins.

Graham Platner endorses Troy Jackson for Maine governor

Graham Platner dips to 97%2%

Graham Platner publicly endorsed Troy Jackson as his top choice in the Maine gubernatorial primary, aligning with Jackson on labor and progressive issues. This endorsement highlighted Platner's influence within the Democratic Party and his strategic positioning ahead of the primary.

Janet Mills officially ends Senate campaign, clearing path for Graham Platner

Graham Platner rises to 99%1%

Janet Mills formally withdrew from the Maine Democratic Senate primary, unable to compete with Graham Platner's growing support and fundraising. This announcement solidified Platner's position as the presumptive nominee, reflected in the market price reaching 99%.

Janet Mills withdraws from Maine Senate race, citing lack of support

Janet Mills drops to 1%6%

Janet Mills, the two-term governor and establishment favorite, announced her withdrawal from the Democratic Senate primary due to insufficient fundraising and enthusiasm, clearing the path for Graham Platner's nomination.

Graham Platner declared presumptive Democratic nominee at Maine Democratic Party Convention

Graham Platner rises to 99%1%

At the party convention, Platner was acknowledged as the presumptive nominee following Mills' withdrawal, receiving endorsements and uniting many Democrats despite some reservations, solidifying his status and market dominance.

Janet Mills drops out of Maine Democratic Senate primary citing lack of funds

Janet Mills drops to 1%6%

Janet Mills suspended her campaign due to insufficient fundraising and lack of enthusiasm, effectively clearing the path for Graham Platner to become the Democratic front-runner.

Graham Platner casts ballot on first day of Maine early voting, pitches energy plan

Graham Platner rises to 99%1%

Platner cast his ballot on the first day of early voting and used the opportunity to promote his energy policy, maintaining campaign momentum and visibility ahead of the primary, supporting his strong market position.

Graham Platner casts early ballot and pitches energy plan in Maine Senate race

Graham Platner rises to 97%2%

Graham Platner cast his ballot on the first day of early voting and unveiled a new energy policy plan focused on clean energy and protecting small businesses. This campaign activity reinforced his front-runner status and energized his base ahead of the June primary.

Janet Mills abandons Senate campaign amid fundraising struggles

Janet Mills drops to 1%6%

Janet Mills, the two-term governor and establishment favorite, officially ended her Senate campaign due to insufficient fundraising and lack of voter enthusiasm, marking a significant defeat and solidifying Graham Platner's position as the frontrunner.

Graham Platner surges to near-certain frontrunner status in Maine Democratic Senate primary

Graham Platner jumps to 99%7%

Market prices surged to nearly 99% for Graham Platner as he became the overwhelming favorite to win the Democratic primary, reflecting broad voter support and the collapse of other candidates' chances, including Janet Mills who dropped to near zero.

Graham Platner acknowledged as presumptive Democratic nominee at Maine Democratic Party Convention

Graham Platner jumps to 98%6%

Following Mills' withdrawal, Platner was recognized as the presumptive nominee at the state party convention, consolidating party support and boosting confidence in his nomination, reflected in market prices nearing 100%.

Janet Mills has not formally withdrawn from Maine Senate primary ballot

Despite suspending her campaign, Mills had not filed official withdrawal paperwork, meaning her name remained on the ballot and votes for her would count unless she formally withdrew, adding uncertainty to the race.

Gov. Janet Mills abandons U.S. Senate bid, endorses Graham Platner

Graham Platner jumps to 99%6%

Mills announced she could not continue her Senate campaign due to fundraising shortfalls, effectively clearing the field for Platner. The announcement caused Platner’s price to jump from 93% to 99% and Mills’s price to plunge from 7% to 1%.

Graham Platner named presumptive Democratic nominee after Mills' exit

Graham Platner jumps to 99%6%

Following Mills' withdrawal, Platner was widely recognized as the presumptive Democratic nominee, consolidating progressive support and leading to near certainty in the market for his nomination.

Graham Platner becomes presumptive Democratic nominee after Mills' exit

Graham Platner jumps to 99%6%

Following Mills' withdrawal, Platner was widely recognized as the presumptive nominee at the Maine Democratic Party Convention, receiving strong support from party delegates and progressive activists. This solidified his position and market dominance ahead of the June primary.

Graham Platner declared presumptive Democratic nominee at Maine Democratic Party Convention

Graham Platner jumps to 98%5%

Following Mills' exit, Platner was recognized as the presumptive nominee at the party convention, consolidating Democratic support and boosting his market price near certainty.

Graham Platner emerges as clear Democratic front-runner in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner jumps to 98%5%

With Mills out, Platner's grassroots campaign and progressive endorsements have propelled him to a commanding lead, reflecting a shift in Democratic voter preferences toward outsider candidates in Maine.

Graham Platner drops out of Senate primary debates, focusing on general election

Graham Platner jumps to 98%5%

Graham Platner withdrew from upcoming Democratic primary debates, signaling confidence as the presumptive nominee after Mills' suspension. This move reinforced his frontrunner status and was followed by endorsements from labor unions, boosting his market price.

Graham Platner skips primary debates after Mills exits

Platner announced he would skip the upcoming primary debates, signaling confidence after Mills’ exit; the market price remained at 99 %, confirming the decisive lead.

Democratic leaders endorse Graham Platner after Mills' exit

Graham Platner jumps to 98%7%

Following Mills' suspension, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and DSCC Chair Kirsten Gillibrand endorsed Graham Platner, consolidating party support behind him for the general election.

Platner drops out of US Senate primary debates

Graham Platner jumps to 99%7%

Platner announced he would skip primary debates, focusing on the general election, which kept his price near the top.

Platner receives Maine AFL‑CIO endorsement on May Day

Graham Platner jumps to 99%7%

Platner accepted the Maine AFL‑CIO endorsement on May 1, pushing his market price from 92% to a peak of 99%, confirming his status as presumptive nominee.

Graham Platner withdraws from primary debates to focus on general election

Graham Platner jumps to 98%5%

Platner announced he would skip upcoming Democratic primary debates to concentrate on the general election against Republican Susan Collins, signaling confidence in his nomination and stabilizing his market price near certainty.

Graham Platner withdraws from Democratic primary debates to focus on general election

Graham Platner jumps to 97%7%

Following Janet Mills' withdrawal, Graham Platner dropped out of upcoming Democratic primary debates to concentrate on his expected general election matchup against Republican Susan Collins. This move signaled Platner's confidence as the presumptive Democratic nominee and further solidified his market position.

Maine Gov. Janet Mills drops out of Senate Democratic primary

Janet Mills drops to 1%6%

Janet Mills suspended her campaign due to lack of funds and trailing in polls, effectively clearing the way for Graham Platner to become the presumptive Democratic nominee. This caused a sharp drop in Mills' market price and a surge for Platner.

Governor Janet Mills suspends U.S. Senate campaign citing lack of funds

Graham Platner jumps to 99%6%

Janet Mills dropped out of the Senate primary race due to insufficient campaign funds, leaving Graham Platner as the presumptive Democratic nominee and causing his market price to surge.

Maine Governor Janet Mills Drops US Senate Bid Citing Lack of Funds

Graham Platner jumps to 99%9%

Janet Mills suspended her campaign for the U.S. Senate, citing insufficient campaign funds to compete effectively. Her exit cleared the path for Graham Platner to become the presumptive Democratic nominee, causing a sharp increase in his market odds.

Maine Gov. Janet Mills drops out of Senate race

Mills announced she was suspending her Senate campaign, effectively clearing the field. Platner’s price stayed at 99 % (no change), while all other candidates fell to 0 %, confirming the market’s expectation.

Maine Gov. Mills drops Democratic US Senate bid

Janet Mills drops to 1%6%

Mills announced she was dropping out of the Senate race due to lack of funds, causing her market price to collapse to 1% and cementing Platner’s dominance.

Janet Mills ends U.S. Senate campaign, clearing way for Graham Platner

Graham Platner jumps to 99%7%

Governor Janet Mills suspended her Senate campaign citing lack of financial resources, effectively handing the Democratic nomination to Graham Platner. This decisive event caused Platner's market price to surge to near certainty and Mills' price to collapse.

Graham Platner effectively declared Democratic primary winner after Mills withdrawal

Graham Platner jumps to 99%6%

Following Mills' withdrawal, Platner's campaign declared victory in the Democratic primary, with polls and endorsements confirming his status as the presumptive nominee.

Maine Governor Janet Mills drops out of U.S. Senate race citing lack of campaign funds

Janet Mills drops to 0%9%

Janet Mills suspended her Senate campaign due to insufficient financial resources, effectively conceding the Democratic primary to Graham Platner. This announcement caused a sharp decline in Mills' market price and a surge for Platner as the presumptive nominee.

Janet Mills suspends Senate campaign citing lack of funds

Graham Platner surges to 99%91%

Janet Mills announced she was suspending her campaign due to insufficient fundraising and inability to compete with Platner's momentum, effectively clearing the path for Platner to become the presumptive Democratic nominee.

Janet Mills drops out of Maine Democratic Senate primary citing lack of funds

Janet Mills drops to 2%5%

Janet Mills suspended her campaign due to insufficient fundraising to compete against Graham Platner, effectively clearing the path for Platner to become the presumptive Democratic nominee. This caused Mills' market price to plummet and Platner's to surge.

Governor Janet Mills drops out of Maine Democratic Senate primary

Janet Mills drops to 1%6%

Janet Mills suspended her Senate campaign citing lack of funds, effectively conceding the primary to Platner and clearing his path to the nomination.

Janet Mills officially ends Senate campaign, citing lack of financial resources

Janet Mills rises to 3%2%

Janet Mills publicly announced the suspension of her Senate campaign due to insufficient financial resources to compete against Graham Platner, confirming her exit and solidifying Platner's front-runner status in the primary.

Maine Governor Janet Mills suspends U.S. Senate campaign citing lack of funds

Graham Platner surges to 97%57%

Janet Mills announced she was suspending her campaign for the U.S. Senate due to insufficient financial resources, effectively clearing the path for Graham Platner to become the Democratic front-runner. This announcement caused Mills' market price to collapse and Platner's to surge to near certainty.

Janet Mills suspends U.S. Senate campaign, clearing path for Platner

Graham Platner surges to 99%66%

Janet Mills suspended her campaign due to lack of funds and trailing in polls, effectively clearing the Democratic primary field for Graham Platner, who became the presumptive nominee and saw his market odds surge.

Democratic leaders endorse Graham Platner after Mills withdrawal

Graham Platner rises to 97%4%

Following Mills' exit, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and DSCC Chair Kirsten Gillibrand announced their support for Graham Platner, consolidating establishment backing behind him for the general election.

Janet Mills suspends her Senate campaign, citing lack of funds

Janet Mills drops to 0%7%

Governor Janet Mills suspended her campaign for the U.S. Senate due to insufficient financial resources, effectively clearing the path for Graham Platner to become the presumptive Democratic nominee. This caused Mills' market price to plummet and Platner's to surge.

Governor Janet Mills Suspends Her U.S. Senate Campaign

Janet Mills drops to 0%12%

Governor Janet Mills dropped out of the primary race, citing a lack of financial resources to compete with Platner, effectively clearing the path for his nomination.

Democratic leaders shift support to Graham Platner after Mills withdrawal

Graham Platner jumps to 98%5%

Following Mills' exit, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and DSCC Chair Kirsten Gillibrand announced their support for Graham Platner to defeat incumbent Republican Susan Collins, consolidating party backing behind Platner.

Governor Janet Mills suspends U.S. Senate campaign citing lack of funds

Janet Mills drops to 0%10%

Governor Janet Mills dropped out of the primary, citing an inability to raise the necessary financial resources to compete with Platner's grassroots momentum.

Graham Platner reaches peak market confidence as Maine Senate primary nears

Graham Platner jumps to 100%7%

As the primary election approached, Graham Platner's support surged to near certainty, reflecting strong voter enthusiasm and the absence of significant competition following Mills' withdrawal. This was the highest market confidence point for Platner.

Janet Mills suspends U.S. Senate campaign, citing lack of funds

Janet Mills drops to 1%6%

Janet Mills dropped out of the Senate race due to fundraising difficulties, effectively clearing the way for Graham Platner to become the Democratic nominee.

Maine Gov. Janet Mills suspends U.S. Senate campaign

Janet Mills drops to 1%6%

Janet Mills ended her Senate campaign citing financial resource constraints, effectively clearing the path for Graham Platner to secure the Democratic nomination.

Governor Janet Mills suspends U.S. Senate campaign, clearing way for Graham Platner

Janet Mills drops to 1%7%

Janet Mills suspended her campaign citing financial reasons after trailing in polls and fundraising behind Graham Platner. Her exit effectively made Platner the presumptive Democratic nominee, reflected in a sharp drop in Mills' market price and a surge for Platner.

Janet Mills suspends U.S. Senate campaign, citing financial constraints

Janet Mills drops to 1%6%

Janet Mills announced she was suspending her campaign for the U.S. Senate due to lack of financial resources, effectively clearing the path for Graham Platner to become the Democratic nominee.

Gov. Janet Mills suspends U.S. Senate campaign, citing financial reasons

Janet Mills drops to 1%6%

Janet Mills suspended her campaign for the U.S. Senate due to lack of financial resources, effectively clearing the path for Graham Platner to become the Democratic nominee.

Platner dubbed ‘presumptive nominee’ at Maine Democratic convention

Graham Platner jumps to 99%7%

Following Mills’ withdrawal, Platner was proclaimed “presumptive nominee” at the Democratic Party convention; the market’s price hovered around 99% thereafter.

Maine legislature passes data center moratorium bill, Gov. Mills supports

Janet Mills drops to 1%6%

Maine's Democratic-controlled legislature passed a moratorium on large data centers, a significant policy move supported by Gov. Janet Mills. While not directly related to the Senate primary, this event highlighted Mills' policy positions and may have influenced voter perceptions during the campaign period.

Graham Platner surges to near-certain frontrunner status in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner jumps to 93%9%

As the primary approached, Graham Platner's support surged dramatically, reaching a peak market price of 93% and signaling overwhelming voter confidence in his candidacy over Janet Mills and other contenders. This surge reflected the consolidation of anti-establishment support behind Platner.

Maine Legislature passes year‑long moratorium on large data centers, sends bill to Gov. Mills

Graham Platner jumps to 93%11%

Lawmakers approved a bill freezing approvals for energy‑intensive data centers for over a year, a move seen as a win for grassroots activists and a signal of anti‑establishment sentiment that boosted Platner’s outsider appeal. The action coincided with Platner’s price rise from 82% to 93% over the following weeks.

Graham Platner surges to near-certain frontrunner status in Maine Democratic Senate primary

Graham Platner surges to 93%17%

As the primary approached, Graham Platner's support surged dramatically, reflecting growing voter confidence in his candidacy and the continued decline of other candidates, including Janet Mills. This surge was likely influenced by ongoing voter dissatisfaction with establishment figures and Platner's grassroots appeal.

Elizabeth Warren endorses Graham Platner at Maine Senate primary rally

Graham Platner surges to 93%18%

Senator Elizabeth Warren publicly endorsed Platner at a major campaign rally, energizing his supporters and signaling strong progressive establishment backing. This endorsement further solidified Platner's front-runner status and contributed to his market price surge.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren endorses Graham Platner in Maine primary

Graham Platner jumps to 99%7%

Warren’s endorsement at a Portland rally gave Platner a boost; the market moved from 92 % on Apr 18 to 99 % by May 3.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren endorses Graham Platner in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner surges to 93%15%

Senator Elizabeth Warren publicly endorsed Graham Platner at a rally in Portland, Maine, boosting his profile and solidifying his lead over Janet Mills in the Democratic primary.

Senator Elizabeth Warren endorses Graham Platner at Maine Senate primary rally

Graham Platner rises to 92%3%

Elizabeth Warren publicly endorsed Graham Platner, energizing his campaign and signaling strong progressive support. This endorsement helped solidify Platner's frontrunner status and contributed to his rising market prices.

Graham Platner holds large rallies and gains progressive endorsements

Graham Platner surges to 93%15%

Platner continued to build momentum with large campaign events and endorsements from progressive leaders, solidifying his lead over Mills in polls and fundraising.

Elizabeth Warren endorses Graham Platner at Maine Senate primary rally

Graham Platner jumps to 82%7%

Senator Elizabeth Warren publicly endorsed Graham Platner at a campaign rally, boosting his progressive credentials and energizing his campaign. This high-profile endorsement contributed to Platner's rising polling numbers and market odds.

Maine legislature passes data center moratorium bill amid community backlash

Janet Mills plunges to 9%15%

Maine lawmakers approved a yearlong moratorium on large data centers, reflecting growing political opposition to tech projects due to concerns about energy use and community impact. Governor Janet Mills, running for Senate, faced this contentious issue, which may have influenced voter perceptions and the primary race.

Poll shows Graham Platner leads Janet Mills by double digits in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner surges to 68%18%

An Emerson College poll showed Platner leading Mills 55% to 28%, reinforcing his position as the front-runner despite Mills' attack ads highlighting his past comments.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren endorses Graham Platner in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner surges to 90%17%

Elizabeth Warren publicly endorsed Platner, aligning him with prominent progressive figures and boosting his campaign momentum and market odds.

Elizabeth Warren endorses Graham Platner at Maine Senate primary rally

Graham Platner jumps to 78%12%

Senator Elizabeth Warren endorsed Graham Platner at a major campaign rally, energizing his supporters and solidifying his position as the progressive front-runner against establishment-backed Janet Mills. This endorsement boosted Platner's market price significantly.

Senator Elizabeth Warren endorses Graham Platner in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner jumps to 84%9%

Senator Elizabeth Warren publicly endorsed Graham Platner, praising his combat veteran background and progressive platform, boosting his campaign and solidifying his lead over Mills.

Polls show Graham Platner leading Janet Mills in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner surges to 78%23%

Multiple polls released in early 2026 showed Graham Platner leading Janet Mills by significant margins, reflecting his growing support and causing his market price to rise sharply while Mills' declined.

Poll shows Graham Platner leading Janet Mills by 27 points in Democratic primary

Graham Platner jumps to 68%12%

An Emerson College poll revealed Platner leading Mills 55% to 28%, reflecting his growing support despite controversies and signaling a shift in the primary race dynamics.

Elizabeth Warren endorses Graham Platner in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner surges to 93%15%

Senator Elizabeth Warren publicly endorsed Graham Platner, boosting his progressive insurgent campaign and signaling strong support from national progressive leaders, which helped solidify his frontrunner status.

Janet Mills launches attack ad targeting Graham Platner's past comments on women

Graham Platner drops to 59%8%

Mills' campaign released a confrontational ad focusing on Platner's 2013 Reddit post about women and sexual assault, aiming to energize women voters and challenge Platner's candidacy. This attack highlighted gender dynamics in the primary and temporarily pressured Platner's support.

Janet Mills launches attack ad targeting Graham Platner's past comments

Janet Mills jumps to 43%9%

Governor Janet Mills released a confrontational attack ad focusing on controversial past online comments by Graham Platner, aiming to energize women voters and challenge Platner's candidacy. This intensified the primary contest but did not ultimately reverse Platner's polling lead.

Dan Kleban suspends Senate campaign and endorses Janet Mills

Dan Kleban plunges to 18%32%

Dan Kleban, a co-founder of Maine Beer Company and Senate candidate, suspended his campaign and endorsed Janet Mills after her entry into the race. This consolidation around Mills briefly affected market dynamics, though Mills' support later waned.

Poll shows Graham Platner holds significant lead over Janet Mills in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner jumps to 66%10%

An Emerson College Polling survey revealed Platner leading Mills 55% to 28%, reinforcing his frontrunner status despite Mills' attack ads highlighting his past controversial comments. This poll further diminished Mills' chances and boosted Platner's market position.

Poll shows Graham Platner leading Janet Mills by double digits in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner jumps to 62%6%

An Emerson College poll showed Platner leading Mills 55% to 28%, confirming his strong front-runner status and increasing market confidence in his eventual nomination.

Janet Mills runs attack ads highlighting Graham Platner's past controversial comments

Janet Mills drops to 26%7%

Mills launched attack ads focusing on Platner's past sexist comments and controversial tattoo, attempting to weaken his support, but Platner maintained his lead in polls and market prices.

Maine governor challenges federal immigration enforcement amid rising community fear

Janet Mills drops to 22%12%

Governor Janet Mills publicly demanded warrants and transparency from federal immigration officials amid widespread fear in immigrant communities due to ICE operations. This stance likely affected her support in the Democratic primary, as voters reacted to the immigration enforcement climate.

Janet Mills faces age concerns in Senate primary race

Janet Mills drops to 34%8%

Concerns about Janet Mills' age and health emerged as a campaign issue, with some Democrats questioning her viability as a candidate. This contributed to fluctuating polling and market prices, as voters weighed her experience against concerns about her ability to serve.

Platner wins endorsement from Senator Bernie Sanders

Graham Platner surges to 99%33%

Senator Sanders publicly endorsed Platner, cementing his anti‑establishment credentials and driving his price close to certainty.

Chellie Pingree joins Minnesota event condemning Trump's ICE operations

Rep. Chellie Pingree participated in a Minnesota hearing criticizing Trump's immigration enforcement, highlighting her active political engagement but with limited direct impact on Senate primary odds.

Senator Bernie Sanders endorses Graham Platner in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner jumps to 67%8%

Senator Bernie Sanders, a prominent democratic socialist, publicly endorsed Graham Platner, boosting his credibility and appeal among anti-establishment Democratic voters. This endorsement contributed to Platner's rising market price and the decline of establishment candidates.

Department of Homeland Security launches immigration enforcement operation in Maine

Janet Mills dips to 33%3%

The DHS initiated 'Operation Catch of the Day' targeting criminal illegal migrants in Maine, leading to increased immigration enforcement activity. Governor Janet Mills publicly criticized the operation, highlighting tensions that may have influenced voter sentiment and the Senate primary dynamics.

DHS launches 'Operation Catch of the Day' immigration enforcement in Maine

Janet Mills dips to 33%3%

The Department of Homeland Security launched a federal immigration enforcement operation in Maine, targeting criminal illegal migrants. Governor Janet Mills criticized the operation, highlighting tensions between her administration and federal authorities. This event underscored Mills' political challenges and may have influenced voter sentiment in the Senate primary.

Janet Mills announces withdrawal from Maine Senate race

Janet Mills drops to 1%6%

Janet Mills officially ended her campaign for the U.S. Senate, citing lack of sufficient support and fundraising, effectively clearing the path for Graham Platner to become the Democratic nominee. This announcement caused Mills' market price to plummet to near zero and Platner's price to surge.

Maine Governor Mills declines to sign data‑center moratorium

Graham Platner surges to 92%34%

Mills’ decision not to sign the moratorium signaled a split with the legislature, further isolating her and boosting Platner’s momentum.

Maine Democratic Party removes Mills from primary ballot

Janet Mills plunges to 0%36%

Following her withdrawal, the state party officially struck Mills’ name from the ballot, effectively ending her campaign and solidifying Platner’s lead.

Polymarket odds show Platner leading at 82% in Maine primary

Graham Platner jumps to 68%13%

Polymarket’s prediction‑market odds rose to 82% for Platner, coinciding with a market move from the high‑50s to the low‑70s in early December.

Senator Bernie Sanders endorses Graham Platner

Graham Platner surges to 77%17%

Sanders publicly backs Platner, reinforcing his frontrunner status and pushing his price higher.

Platner’s fundraising surge eclipses all other Democratic primary candidates in Maine

Graham Platner surges to 93%15%

Financial disclosures showed Platner raising significantly more cash than any other Democratic contender, reinforcing voter confidence and pushing his market price close to the 90% threshold while other candidates fell to single‑digit levels.

Maine Democratic Party releases fundraising report showing Platner outpacing Mills

Graham Platner surges to 78%17%

A state‑party filing revealed Platner had raised significantly more money than Mills, confirming his growing viability and pushing his market price higher.

ICE launches intensified enforcement operation in Maine

Graham Platner jumps to 76%7%

The sudden increase in ICE arrests and the controversy over undercover license plates heightened anti‑Trump sentiment in the state, benefiting anti‑establishment candidates like Platner and further depressing other contenders.

Janet Mills withdraws from Maine Senate primary, boosting Platner's chances

Janet Mills plunges to 1%27%

Janet Mills officially ended her campaign for the U.S. Senate, citing insufficient support and fundraising. This withdrawal solidified Graham Platner's position as the leading candidate in the Democratic primary, reflected by a significant increase in his market price and a collapse in Mills' chances.

Janet Mills announces she will not seek re‑election as governor

Janet Mills plunges to 9%21%

Mills confirmed she would not run for a third term as governor, removing any fallback option and further eroding her political base in the Senate race.

New Poll Shows Graham Platner Leading Janet Mills by 20 Points

Graham Platner jumps to 63%9%

A poll conducted for the Progressive Change Campaign Committee showed progressive insurgent Graham Platner with a commanding 20-point lead over Governor Janet Mills.

Platner apologizes for past sexist comments

Graham Platner jumps to 60%11%

Platner publicly apologized for his past comments, stabilizing his market price after a dip.

Janet Mills withdraws from Maine Senate race, endorsing Graham Platner

Graham Platner jumps to 69%7%

Janet Mills officially ended her Senate campaign due to lack of fundraising and support, marking a significant victory for Graham Platner and signaling a rejection of establishment candidates by Maine Democratic voters. This event caused a sharp increase in Platner's market price and a collapse in Mills' chances.

Schumer’s recruitment of Platner criticized by moderate Democrats

Graham Platner surges to 72%27%

Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer’s backing of Platner drew backlash from moderate Democrats, reinforcing the narrative of an anti‑establishment wave and further rallying grassroots support for Platner.

Jordan Wood switches from Senate to run for U.S. House after Jared Golden announces retirement

Jordan Wood plunges to 0%50%

Jordan Wood ended his U.S. Senate campaign to run for Maine's 2nd Congressional District following incumbent Jared Golden's announcement that he would not seek reelection. This reduced competition in the Senate primary and caused Wood's market price to drop to zero.

Jordan Wood ends Senate campaign to run for U.S. House in Maine's 2nd District

Jordan Wood plunges to 0%50%

Jordan Wood switched from the Senate race to run for the open 2nd Congressional District seat following Jared Golden's retirement, reducing competition in the Senate primary.

Jordan Wood drops out of Senate race to run for House seat

Jordan Wood plunges to 0%50%

Jordan Wood left the Democratic Senate primary to run for the 2nd Congressional District seat after incumbent Jared Golden announced he would not seek reelection, reducing competition in the Senate primary.

Maine Legislature passes year‑long moratorium on large data centers

Graham Platner jumps to 69%7%

The bipartisan bill, sent to Gov. Mills for signature, highlighted growing anti‑establishment sentiment and environmental concerns, further eroding support for traditional candidates and nudging voters toward Platner’s outsider appeal.

Jordan Wood drops Senate bid to run for Maine's 2nd Congressional District

Jordan Wood plunges to 0%50%

Jordan Wood left the Senate primary to run for the open 2nd Congressional District seat after Jared Golden announced his retirement, reducing competition in the Senate primary and consolidating support around Platner and Mills.

Progressive Change Campaign Committee endorses Graham Platner amid polling lead

Graham Platner surges to 63%15%

The Progressive Change Campaign Committee endorsed Graham Platner, reinforcing his position as the leading candidate in the Maine Democratic Senate primary despite past controversies. This endorsement helped Platner maintain and grow his polling lead over Janet Mills and others.

Progressive candidate Graham Platner leads Maine Senate Democratic primary by 20 points in new poll

Graham Platner surges to 63%29%

A poll conducted for the Progressive Change Campaign Committee showed Platner leading Governor Janet Mills by 20 points despite recent controversies, signaling strong grassroots support and a shift in voter sentiment favoring Platner's insurgent campaign.

Platner leads Maine Democratic Senate primary by 20 points in new poll

Graham Platner surges to 55%21%

A PCCC‑commissioned poll released in early November showed Platner at 58% versus 38% for Mills, a 20‑point lead that aligns with the market’s jump from the low‑30s to the mid‑50s in late October and early November.

Poll shows Graham Platner leading Maine Democratic Senate primary by 20 points

Graham Platner jumps to 42%8%

A poll conducted for the Progressive Change Campaign Committee showed Platner leading Governor Janet Mills by 20 points despite recent controversies, indicating strong grassroots support and a commanding lead in the primary race.

Progressive Change Campaign Committee endorses Graham Platner

Graham Platner surges to 63%15%

The Progressive Change Campaign Committee endorsed Platner, reinforcing his progressive insurgent image and boosting his campaign momentum. This endorsement helped Platner maintain and grow his lead in the Democratic primary market.

Progressive Graham Platner leads Maine Senate Democratic primary by 20 points in new poll

Graham Platner surges to 56%22%

A poll conducted for the Progressive Change Campaign Committee showed Platner leading Governor Janet Mills by 20 points despite past controversies, signaling strong grassroots support and shifting market confidence in his candidacy.

Poll shows Graham Platner leading Janet Mills by 20 points in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner jumps to 54%8%

A poll conducted for the Progressive Change Campaign Committee showed Platner with a commanding 20-point lead over Mills despite controversies, boosting his market price and solidifying his frontrunner status.

Jared Golden announces he will not seek re-election to U.S. House

Jared Golden plunges to 0%50%

Incumbent Jared Golden announced retirement, removing him from the Senate primary race and impacting the dynamics by opening the 2nd Congressional District seat and shifting focus away from him as a Senate candidate.

Representative Jared Golden Announces He Will Not Seek Re-election

Jared Golden drops to 0%11%

Representative Jared Golden announced he would not seek re-election in 2026, ending speculation about his potential Senate primary run and causing his odds to drop to zero.

Emerson College poll shows Platner up 27 points over Mills

Graham Platner jumps to 68%13%

Emerson College released a poll on Nov 4 2025 with Platner 55 % vs. Mills 28 %. The market rose sharply to 68 % on Nov 29, reflecting reinforcement of the lead.

Mills releases attack ad targeting Platner’s past comments

Janet Mills drops to 49%14%

Mills released an attack ad highlighting Platner’s past sexist remarks, causing her market price to fall sharply.

Maine Democratic Party officially announces Graham Platner as primary frontrunner

Graham Platner jumps to 78%8%

Following Mills’ exit and the data‑center vote, the state Democratic Party formally endorsed Platner, cementing his status as the leading candidate and sending his market price to near‑record levels.

Progressive poll gives Graham Platner 20‑point lead over Janet Mills

Graham Platner surges to 55%21%

The PCCC‑sponsored poll released Oct 29 2025 showed Platner at 58 % vs. Mills 38 %, the first clear double‑digit lead. The market jumped from 34 % on Sep 15 to 55 % on Oct 10 as traders incorporated the new data.

Poll shows Graham Platner leading Janet Mills by 20 points in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner surges to 58%15%

A poll conducted by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee showed Platner leading Mills by 20 points, indicating strong and stable support for Platner despite controversies, which was reflected in market price increases.

Gov. Janet Mills abandons U.S. Senate campaign, clearing the field for Graham Platner

Graham Platner surges to 56%22%

Maine Governor Janet Mills announced she was ending her Senate bid, citing insufficient fundraising and enthusiasm. The move removed the establishment favorite, propelling outsider Graham Platner to the forefront and causing a sharp rise in his market price.

Anti‑establishment wave boosts Graham Platner’s primary odds in Maine

Graham Platner surges to 62%23%

Following Mills’ exit, Democratic voters embraced the anti‑establishment sentiment, rallying behind Platner. The surge reflected a broader rejection of party leadership and drove Platner’s price from the mid‑30s to near‑60 percent within weeks.

Gov. Janet Mills abandons U.S. Senate campaign in Maine

Janet Mills plunges to 1%49%

Maine’s two‑term Democratic governor announced she was ending her Senate bid, citing fundraising shortfalls and lack of enthusiasm. The exit removed her as a contender, causing her market price to plunge and boosting Graham Platner’s odds as the remaining major candidate.

Graham Platner emerges as front‑runner for Maine Democratic Senate primary

Graham Platner surges to 99%65%

Following Mills’ withdrawal, oyster farmer Graham Platner became the clear favorite, gaining endorsements and media attention. The market reflected this with his price climbing sharply from the low‑30s to the high‑90s over the following weeks.

CNN investigation reveals Graham Platner knew about Nazi symbolism of his tattoo years ago

Graham Platner rises to 57%2%

CNN uncovered evidence that Platner was aware of and defended the Nazi-linked Totenkopf tattoo for years, contradicting his claims of recent ignorance. This controversy raised questions about his character and affected his campaign's public perception.

Janet Mills withdraws from Maine Senate race, boosting Graham Platner

Graham Platner surges to 48%20%

Governor Janet Mills officially ended her Senate campaign due to insufficient support and fundraising, solidifying Graham Platner's position as the frontrunner in the Democratic primary. This event caused a sharp decline in Mills' market price and a corresponding rise for Platner.

Gov. Janet Mills abandons U.S. Senate bid, ending her primary campaign

Graham Platner surges to 55%21%

Mills announced she could not raise enough funds to stay in the race, effectively removing the establishment favorite and leaving Graham Platner as the sole major contender, driving Platner’s price from the mid‑30s to near‑100%.

Dan Kleban suspends Senate campaign and endorses Janet Mills

Dan Kleban plunges to 18%32%

Dan Kleban ended his campaign and threw his support behind Janet Mills, consolidating establishment support behind her and reducing the number of primary contenders.

Controversies emerge around Graham Platner's past comments and tattoo

Graham Platner drops to 48%8%

Reports surfaced about Graham Platner's past controversial Reddit comments and a skull-and-crossbones tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol, leading to negative media coverage. Despite this, Platner maintained a strong polling lead, showing resilience and impacting market prices by initially causing some volatility but ultimately solidifying his frontrunner status.

Janet Mills briefly surges in Maine Senate primary polling

Janet Mills surges to 70%34%

Janet Mills experienced a temporary increase in support, reaching a peak of 70%, likely due to establishment backing and campaign efforts, but this was short-lived as Platner's support rebounded.

Janet Mills announces U.S. Senate run, endorsed by Democratic establishment

Janet Mills surges to 66%24%

Janet Mills officially entered the Senate race in October 2025 with backing from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, initially boosting her market odds.

Elizabeth Warren endorses Graham Platner at Maine rally

Graham Platner jumps to 73%12%

Warren’s endorsement of Platner at a rally was reported, causing a sharp rise in Platner’s market price.

Mills rallies supporters amid rising attack ads

Janet Mills plunges to 21%44%

Mills’ campaign released a teaser video defending her record after a surge in negative ads; the market slid sharply for her from ~65% to ~20% over the next two weeks.

Maine Legislature passes data‑center moratorium bill

Graham Platner jumps to 64%11%

The Democratic‑controlled Legislature approved a year‑long freeze on large data‑center projects, sending the bill to Gov. Mills. The controversy over tech development highlighted local economic concerns and boosted Platner’s outsider appeal.

Graham Platner controversy over Nazi tattoo and past comments surfaces

Graham Platner drops to 47%9%

Graham Platner faced scrutiny over a tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol and inflammatory past online posts, which generated negative media attention but did not significantly diminish his polling lead, showing resilience in the race.

Graham Platner reveals he covered up Nazi-related tattoo

Graham Platner dips to 53%1%

Graham Platner disclosed that he covered up a tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol after it was brought to public attention, addressing controversy that could have impacted his campaign but maintaining his lead in the primary.

Graham Platner faces controversies but maintains strong polling lead

Graham Platner surges to 55%21%

Despite controversies over past comments and a tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol, Graham Platner maintained a commanding lead in polls over Janet Mills, signaling strong grassroots support and resilience against establishment-backed attacks.

Federal ICE operation begins in Maine, targeting 1,400 illegal immigrants

Graham Platner jumps to 70%8%

The Department of Homeland Security launched an ICE sweep in Maine, heightening anti‑Trump sentiment and reinforcing Democratic voters’ preference for outsider candidates, pushing Platner’s price higher and dragging down the establishment‑linked candidates.

Graham Platner apologizes for controversial past social media posts

Graham Platner plunges to 29%26%

Platner acknowledged and apologized for past Reddit posts and a tattoo resembling Nazi symbolism, which sparked controversy and negative campaign ads from Mills. Despite this, his support remained resilient, reflecting in market fluctuations.

Controversy over Graham Platner's past social media posts emerges

Graham Platner plunges to 31%36%

Revelations about Platner's past sexist and inflammatory online comments surfaced, leading to negative campaign ads from Mills but not significantly hurting Platner's polling.

Poll shows Graham Platner leading Janet Mills despite controversies

Graham Platner surges to 55%21%

A University of New Hampshire poll showed Platner leading Mills by a significant margin despite controversies over his past comments and tattoo, indicating strong grassroots support and influencing market prices upward for Platner.

Janet Mills withdraws from Maine Senate race, citing lack of support

Graham Platner surges to 46%21%

Janet Mills, the two-term governor and establishment favorite, announced her withdrawal from the Democratic Senate primary due to insufficient fundraising and enthusiasm, marking a major upset and boosting Graham Platner's chances significantly.

University of New Hampshire poll shows Graham Platner leading Janet Mills in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner jumps to 43%9%

A University of New Hampshire poll conducted mid-October 2025 showed Platner leading Mills by a significant margin despite recent controversies, boosting market confidence in Platner's chances.

Controversy emerges over Graham Platner's past sexist comments and Nazi-like tattoo

Graham Platner plunges to 31%35%

Reports surfaced about Platner's past Reddit posts with sexist remarks and a skull-and-crossbones tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol, causing a media stir. Despite the backlash, Platner apologized and covered the tattoo, but the controversy initially affected his polling.

Controversy arises over Graham Platner's past social media posts and tattoo

Graham Platner jumps to 41%7%

Graham Platner faced scrutiny for past Reddit posts with sexist comments and a tattoo resembling Nazi symbolism, which he apologized for and covered up. Despite this, his polling remained strong, indicating limited impact on his campaign.

Graham Platner faces controversies but maintains strong polling lead in Maine Senate Democratic primary

Graham Platner surges to 54%20%

Despite controversies over past comments and a tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol, Graham Platner maintained a commanding lead over Janet Mills in polls, signaling strong grassroots support and progressive backing, which boosted his market odds significantly.

Dan Kleban drops out of Senate race, endorses Janet Mills

Dan Kleban plunges to 0%50%

Dan Kleban, a Democratic candidate and co-founder of Maine Beer Company, suspended his Senate campaign and endorsed Janet Mills, consolidating establishment support behind her and causing his market price to drop to zero.

Progressive Change poll gives Graham Platner 20‑point lead over Janet Mills

Graham Platner surges to 58%24%

A poll commissioned by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee showed Platner leading Governor Janet Mills by 20 points (58% to 38%). The large margin triggered a sharp rise in Platner’s market price from the low‑30s to the mid‑50s percent range.

Gov. Janet Mills officially announces U.S. Senate campaign

Janet Mills entered the 2026 U.S. Senate race as the Democratic establishment's preferred candidate, prompting other contenders like Dan Kleban to suspend their campaigns and endorse her, reshaping the primary field.

Janet Mills officially enters Maine Senate race, shaking up the primary

Janet Mills surges to 70%20%

Governor Janet Mills announced her Senate campaign, receiving backing from Democratic leaders including Chuck Schumer. Her entry caused shifts in the primary field, with some candidates withdrawing and endorsing her, and increased her market price initially.

Gov. Janet Mills announces U.S. Senate campaign, shaking up Maine race

Janet Mills dips to 48%2%

Janet Mills officially entered the 2026 U.S. Senate race, becoming the Democratic establishment's preferred candidate and prompting other contenders like Dan Kleban to suspend their campaigns and endorse her. This shifted market dynamics, initially boosting Mills' chances.

Dan Kleban suspends Senate campaign and endorses Janet Mills

Dan Kleban plunges to 0%50%

Following Mills' entry, Dan Kleban withdrew from the Senate race and endorsed her, consolidating establishment support behind Mills and temporarily slowing Graham Platner's momentum.

Dan Kleban suspends Senate campaign and endorses Janet Mills

Janet Mills dips to 48%2%

Dan Kleban, a Democratic candidate and co-founder of Maine Beer Company, suspended his campaign and endorsed Governor Janet Mills shortly after Mills announced her candidacy. This consolidation around Mills initially boosted her position in the primary.

Jared Golden ends Senate campaign

Jared Golden drops to 0%11%

Golden withdrew from the race, causing his price to fall to zero.

Maine Governor Janet Mills Enters U.S. Senate Race

Janet Mills surges to 66%28%

Governor Janet Mills officially announced her campaign for the U.S. Senate, shaking up the primary field as the preferred candidate of the Democratic establishment.

Janet Mills officially enters Maine Senate race against Susan Collins

Janet Mills drops to 45%5%

Janet Mills, Maine's two-term governor, announced her candidacy for the U.S. Senate, becoming the establishment favorite with strong party backing and fundraising ability. This entry reshaped the Democratic primary, pushing other candidates to reconsider their campaigns.

Maine Governor Janet Mills announces U.S. Senate campaign

Janet Mills drops to 45%5%

Janet Mills entered the 2026 U.S. Senate race with strong establishment backing, including endorsements from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. This announcement caused other Democratic candidates like Dan Kleban to suspend their campaigns and endorse Mills, consolidating establishment support and initially slowing Graham Platner's momentum.

Gov. Janet Mills announces U.S. Senate campaign, shaking up Maine race

Janet Mills officially entered the 2026 U.S. Senate race, becoming the Democratic establishment's preferred candidate and prompting other contenders like Dan Kleban to suspend their campaigns and endorse her. This announcement caused shifts in the market as Mills gained support.

Dan Kleban suspends Senate campaign, endorses Janet Mills

Janet Mills drops to 45%5%

Dan Kleban withdrew from the Democratic primary and endorsed establishment candidate Janet Mills, consolidating establishment support behind her and temporarily slowing Platner's momentum.

Dan Kleban Suspends Senate Campaign and Endorses Janet Mills

Dan Kleban plunges to 0%17%

Immediately following Governor Mills' entry into the race, primary contender Dan Kleban withdrew his candidacy and endorsed her.

Janet Mills announces U.S. Senate campaign, prompting Dan Kleban to suspend his bid and endorse her

Janet Mills, Maine's governor, officially entered the 2026 U.S. Senate race with strong establishment backing, including from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. This led to Dan Kleban suspending his campaign and endorsing Mills, consolidating establishment support behind her and initially tempering Platner's momentum.

Maine Legislature passes year‑long data‑center moratorium

Graham Platner jumps to 62%6%

Lawmakers approved a statewide freeze on large data‑center projects, a move seen as a protest against tech‑industry influence and a boost for anti‑establishment candidates like Platner, while further eroding support for establishment figures such as Mills.

Troy Jackson exits Maine Senate primary

Troy Jackson dips to 0%3%

Jackson announced his withdrawal, pushing his market price to zero.

Jordan Wood suspends Senate campaign

Jordan Wood plunges to 0%19%

Wood withdrew, eliminating his share of the race and driving his price to zero.

Janet Mills announces withdrawal from Maine Senate race

Graham Platner surges to 59%25%

Governor Janet Mills ended her U.S. Senate campaign after failing to generate sufficient fundraising and enthusiasm to compete against Graham Platner, an oyster farmer and political newcomer. This announcement significantly boosted Platner's chances, reflected in a sharp market price increase for his candidacy and a collapse in Mills' support.

Janet Mills abandons Maine Senate bid, citing fundraising and enthusiasm shortfalls

Graham Platner plunges to 26%34%

Governor Janet Mills ended her campaign for the U.S. Senate after failing to generate sufficient fundraising and voter enthusiasm, a major blow to the Democratic establishment and a key turning point that boosted outsider Graham Platner's chances significantly.

Graham Platner gains momentum as anti-establishment candidate in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner surges to 60%21%

Graham Platner, an oyster farmer with no prior elected office experience, began gaining significant support against the establishment-backed Governor Janet Mills, reflecting a growing anti-establishment mood among Maine Democrats. This shift caused Platner's market price to rise sharply, signaling increased confidence in his primary victory.

Platner leads Maine Senate Primary by 20 points in new poll

Graham Platner surges to 61%27%

A poll released by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee showed Platner leading Mills by 20 points, pushing Platner’s price upward.

Chellie Pingree ends Senate bid

Chellie Pingree dips to 0%3%

Pingree formally ended her campaign, sending her price to zero.

Dan Kleban drops out of Senate primary

Dan Kleban plunges to 0%15%

Kleban announced he would not continue his campaign, causing his market price to collapse to zero.

Gov. Janet Mills abandons Senate campaign, endorses Graham Platner

Graham Platner surges to 60%18%

Maine’s two‑term Democratic governor announced she could not raise enough funds and withdrew, throwing her support behind oyster farmer Graham Platner. The move eliminated the establishment favorite and sent Platner’s market price sharply upward.

Gov. Janet Mills abandons U.S. Senate campaign, endorses Graham Platner

Graham Platner drops to 56%12%

Maine’s two‑term Democratic governor announced she could not raise enough funds to stay in the Senate race and withdrew, effectively handing the primary to newcomer oyster farmer Graham Platner. The announcement triggered a sharp rise in Platner’s market price and a plunge for Mills and all other candidates.

Gov. Janet Mills withdraws from Maine Democratic Senate primary, endorses Graham Platner

Graham Platner jumps to 59%14%

Mills announced she could not raise sufficient funds and withdrew, effectively clearing the field for Platner and causing his support to surge as voters coalesced around the anti‑establishment candidate.

Early poll shows Platner leading primary field

Graham Platner jumps to 42%8%

A regional poll released by a local news outlet placed Platner ahead of Mills and other candidates, prompting early price gains for Platner and declines for the rest.

Graham Platner gains early momentum as anti-establishment candidate in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner surges to 53%19%

Graham Platner, an oyster farmer with no prior elected office experience, began gaining traction among Democratic voters frustrated with party establishment, signaling a shift in the primary race dynamics.

Graham Platner gains momentum as anti-establishment candidate in Maine Senate race

Graham Platner surges to 53%19%

Graham Platner, an oyster farmer with no prior elected office, began gaining significant support as Democratic voters in Maine showed a preference for anti-establishment candidates, challenging the party's national leadership's preferred candidate, Janet Mills. This shift caused Platner's market price to rise sharply and Mills' to decline.

Market opens for Maine Democratic Senate Primary

Initial market opening with no specific news; baseline prices set.

Graham Platner emerges as progressive front-runner in Maine Senate primary

Graham Platner jumps to 43%9%

Early trading and polling indicated Platner gaining ground as a progressive insurgent against establishment-backed Janet Mills, signaling a competitive primary with Platner as a key Senate flip opportunity for Democrats.

Democratic state lawmaker Tiffany Roberts explores primary challenge to Rep. Chellie Pingree

Tiffany Roberts announced an exploratory committee to potentially challenge incumbent Chellie Pingree in the Democratic primary, signaling early intra-party competition in Maine's 1st District.