Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 97.9% for Donald Trump remaining president beyond April 30, 2025, driven by his November 2024 election victory and scheduled January 20 inauguration marking the start of a full four-year term. Constitutional barriers to early removal—impeachment conviction needing two-thirds Senate approval amid Republican majorities, voluntary resignation, 25th Amendment invocation by cabinet, or incapacity—are formidable, with no recent developments signaling any risk. Transition activities center on cabinet nominations and Senate confirmation hearings, underscoring stability. Over the past 30 days, no health events, scandals, or legal actions have disrupted preparations; rare historical early exits like Nixon's 1974 resignation highlight the unlikelihood absent major shocks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
$37,588 Vol.
NEW
$37,588 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
NEW
$37,588 Vol.
NEW
$37,588 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 97.9% for Donald Trump remaining president beyond April 30, 2025, driven by his November 2024 election victory and scheduled January 20 inauguration marking the start of a full four-year term. Constitutional barriers to early removal—impeachment conviction needing two-thirds Senate approval amid Republican majorities, voluntary resignation, 25th Amendment invocation by cabinet, or incapacity—are formidable, with no recent developments signaling any risk. Transition activities center on cabinet nominations and Senate confirmation hearings, underscoring stability. Over the past 30 days, no health events, scandals, or legal actions have disrupted preparations; rare historical early exits like Nixon's 1974 resignation highlight the unlikelihood absent major shocks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
Volume
$37,588End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 97.9% for Donald Trump remaining president beyond April 30, 2025, driven by his November 2024 election victory and scheduled January 20 inauguration marking the start of a full four-year term. Constitutional barriers to early removal—impeachment conviction needing two-thirds Senate approval amid Republican majorities, voluntary resignation, 25th Amendment invocation by cabinet, or incapacity—are formidable, with no recent developments signaling any risk. Transition activities center on cabinet nominations and Senate confirmation hearings, underscoring stability. Over the past 30 days, no health events, scandals, or legal actions have disrupted preparations; rare historical early exits like Nixon's 1974 resignation highlight the unlikelihood absent major shocks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$37,588End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 97.9% for Donald Trump remaining president beyond April 30, 2025, driven by his November 2024 election victory and scheduled January 20 inauguration marking the start of a full four-year term. Constitutional barriers to early removal—impeachment conviction needing two-thirds Senate approval amid Republican majorities, voluntary resignation, 25th Amendment invocation by cabinet, or incapacity—are formidable, with no recent developments signaling any risk. Transition activities center on cabinet nominations and Senate confirmation hearings, underscoring stability. Over the past 30 days, no health events, scandals, or legal actions have disrupted preparations; rare historical early exits like Nixon's 1974 resignation highlight the unlikelihood absent major shocks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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