President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing on May 13, 2026, for a two-day state visit with Chinese President Xi Jinping—the first by a sitting U.S. president since 2017—accompanied by CEOs from Nvidia, Tesla, Apple, and Boeing to discuss trade deals, rare earth minerals, Taiwan arms sales, and Iran tensions. Originally planned for March-April but delayed by the Iran conflict, the summit reflects ongoing bilateral diplomacy amid tariffs and supply chain frictions. Traders should monitor outcomes from the meetings through May 15, as agreements or escalations could influence future foreign policy, though the visit itself resolves any "by May 2026" market affirmatively based on confirmed travel. No prior trips occurred since Trump's January 2025 inauguration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTrump arrived in China as scheduled, marking the first visit by a sitting U.S.
June 30 rises to 100%3%
president to China since 2017, effectively resolving the market question with certainty
Trump arrives in Beijing for the state visit, marking the first U.S.
May 15 rises to 100%1%
presidential visit to China in nearly nine years, confirming the market’s 100% certainty of the visit
Reports highlighted that Trump would discuss the Iran war with Xi Jinping, aiming to leverage China’s influence for a ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, adding
June 30 rises to 100%3%
Reports highlighted that Trump would discuss the Iran war with Xi Jinping, aiming to leverage China’s influence for a ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, adding geopolitical weight to the visit
Media coverage detailed the packed itinerary including bilateral meetings, a state banquet, and cultural visits, confirming the visit's execution and raising expectations for
June 30 rises to 100%3%
Media coverage detailed the packed itinerary including bilateral meetings, a state banquet, and cultural visits, confirming the visit's execution and raising expectations for substantive talks amid the Iran war context
| CNBC reports Trump officially invites top U.S.
CEOs to accompany him on the Beijing summit |– the same day’s additional detail cemented market consensus at 100 % Yes. |
Trump invited major U.S. corporate executives such as Elon Musk, Tim Cook, and Larry Fink to join the China trip, emphasizing the high-profile nature and potential business
June 30 jumps to 97%5%
Trump invited major U.S. corporate executives such as Elon Musk, Tim Cook, and Larry Fink to join the China trip, emphasizing the high-profile nature and potential business outcomes of the visit
| Al Jazeera reports Trump will discuss Iran with Xi during the upcoming visit, emphasizing “tremendous symbolic significance” |– renewed media focus on the agenda reinforced
June 30 rises to 97%1%
| Al Jazeera reports Trump will discuss Iran with Xi during the upcoming visit, emphasizing “tremendous symbolic significance” |– renewed media focus on the agenda reinforced expectations, nudging the
Trump publicly expressed enthusiasm for the trip on social media, calling China “an amazing country,” and announced plans to discuss arms sales to Taiwan with Xi Jinping,
June 30 rises to 92%3%
Trump publicly expressed enthusiasm for the trip on social media, calling China “an amazing country,” and announced plans to discuss arms sales to Taiwan with Xi Jinping, underscoring the visit's diplomatic importance
South China Morning Post notes that the summit’s agenda includes a high‑profile press conference where Trump is expected to announce a new trade pact, pushing the market to its
May 15 rises to 95%4%
South China Morning Post notes that the summit’s agenda includes a high‑profile press conference where Trump is expected to announce a new trade pact, pushing the market to its peak
| [2026‑05‑09] Politico notes “historic” business summit in Beijing scheduled, with dozens of U.S.
June 30 rises to 98%2%
CEOs expected, pushing confidence to near‑certain |
CNBC reports a delegation of U.S.
May 31 jumps to 85%14%
CEOs (Boeing, Mastercard, etc.) will join Trump on the China trip, underscoring the visit’s economic significance
News circulated that a delegation of American CEOs, including leaders from Boeing and Mastercard, would accompany Trump to China, highlighting the economic and trade significance
June 30 jumps to 89%7%
News circulated that a delegation of American CEOs, including leaders from Boeing and Mastercard, would accompany Trump to China, highlighting the economic and trade significance of the visit
The Diplomat analysis: “Trump‑Xi summit expected to proceed despite regional tensions” | A sober assessment that regional risks remain but the visit is still on schedule caused a
June 30 dips to 94%3%
The Diplomat analysis: “Trump‑Xi summit expected to proceed despite regional tensions” | A sober assessment that regional risks remain but the visit is still on schedule caused a modest pull‑back, leaving the
CNBC confirms Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg will attend the China visit, with a major aircraft order expected to be unveiled during the trip, cementing the visit’s commercial
June 30 dips to 94%3%
CNBC confirms Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg will attend the China visit, with a major aircraft order expected to be unveiled during the trip, cementing the visit’s commercial significance (minor pull‑back as market
U.S. Senate delegation led by Steve Daines visits China for preliminary diplomatic talks, meeting Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Zhao Leji, signaling warming ties ahead of Trump’s
May 15 rises to 91%4%
U.S. Senate delegation led by Steve Daines visits China for preliminary diplomatic talks, meeting Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Zhao Leji, signaling warming ties ahead of Trump’s visit
| Politico reveals White House invites CEOs Elon Musk, Tim Cook, Larry Fink and others to join Trump on the China trip |– the high‑profile business delegation suggested a serious,
June 30 jumps to 96%12%
| Politico reveals White House invites CEOs Elon Musk, Tim Cook, Larry Fink and others to join Trump on the China trip |– the high‑profile business delegation suggested a serious, high‑stakes visit, spurring a jump. |
Trump launches “Project Freedom” to escort vessels in Strait of Hormuz, signaling confidence in upcoming China trip | The aggressive diplomatic move was interpreted as a signal
June 30 rises to 97%2%
Trump launches “Project Freedom” to escort vessels in Strait of Hormuz, signaling confidence in upcoming China trip | The aggressive diplomatic move was interpreted as a signal that Trump felt secure enough to proceed with the China visit, pushing the
The Real Role of a Trump‑Xi meeting analysis (The Diplomat) notes that the May 14‑15 summit is now “firmly set” and linked to upcoming Chinese five‑year plan, pushing odds to a
June 30 rises to 97%2%
The Real Role of a Trump‑Xi meeting analysis (The Diplomat) notes that the May 14‑15 summit is now “firmly set” and linked to upcoming Chinese five‑year plan, pushing odds to a near‑certainty
CNN quotes Chinese sources saying the unfinished Iran war could keep the Strait of Hormuz closed when Trump arrives, making the trip “not the same as any other heads‑of‑state
CNN quotes Chinese sources saying the unfinished Iran war could keep the Strait of Hormuz closed when Trump arrives, making the trip “not the same as any other heads‑of‑state visit” and further eroding market confidence
Fortune reports that China will publicly ignore U.S.
May 15 rises to 90%2%
sanctions on Iranian trade during the summit, a policy shift interpreted as a “green light” for Trump’s presence in Beijing
Trump declares no further postponement; market peaks at 97%
June 30 jumps to 96%10%
In a May 3 interview, Bessent again stressed the visit would not be delayed, and Trump’s own statement on Truth Social that the trip would be “excellent” sent the
South China Morning Post reports U.S.
May 15 jumps to 87%10%
Air Force C-17 planes spotted in Beijing and American CEOs joining Trump’s delegation, indicating serious preparations for the visit
Trump declares on Truth Social: “Visit to China is set;
June 30 surges to 95%16%
I will not postpone again” | The firm statement eliminated lingering doubts, sending the “Yes” probability soaring to near‑certain levels. |
Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterates on Fox News that Trump will not postpone the visit again and announces “Project Freedom” to escort vessels in the Strait of Hormuz,
May 31 rises to 95%4%
Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterates on Fox News that Trump will not postpone the visit again and announces “Project Freedom” to escort vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring the administration’s focus on the May schedule
SCMP reveals Senator Steve Daines will lead a bipartisan delegation to China the following week, intensifying U.S.
May 31 jumps to 91%5%
engagement ahead of the May 14‑15 summit
Polymarket lists the White House’s official confirmation of the May 14‑15 summit as the “primary resolution source,” cementing market confidence (no change, but validates the high
Polymarket lists the White House’s official confirmation of the May 14‑15 summit as the “primary resolution source,” cementing market confidence (no change, but validates the high level)
Fortune publishes China’s “welcome‑mat” announcement that U.S.
June 30 dips to 94%2%
sanctions will not be enforced during the May summit, removing legal uncertainty and driving the
China’s foreign minister warns the U.S.
May 31 surges to 81%19%
that Taiwan poses the biggest risk ahead of Trump’s May 14‑15 trip
Trump insists the China trip will go ahead as planned
June 30 rises to 86%1%
SCMP quoted Trump saying the visit “will be amazing” and that he remained committed, reinforcing market optimism after a brief dip.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi holds a phone call with U.S.
May 15 jumps to 72%8%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio to conduct preliminary communication regarding Trump’s upcoming state visit, signaling diplomatic coordination
The New York Times details how the U.S.
May 8 dips to 0%1%
blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the ensuing Iran‑China oil‑supply crisis “vastly complicates” the planned Trump‑China meeting, prompting analysts to downgrade the visit’s likelihood
Chinese foreign ministry releases a detailed itinerary for Trump’s May 15 arrival, including scheduled meetings with Xi Jinping and a state banquet, further cementing the trip’s
May 15 rises to 67%3%
Chinese foreign ministry releases a detailed itinerary for Trump’s May 15 arrival, including scheduled meetings with Xi Jinping and a state banquet, further cementing the trip’s logistics
China’s AI summit shows Beijing’s focus on strategic cooperation
June 30 drops to 85%7%
Coverage of China’s Digital China Summit highlighted continued high‑level engagement with the US, but the lack of direct mention of the Trump visit introduced a modest pull‑back.
Reuters reports that Taiwan dominates the agenda for the upcoming Trump‑Xi summit and that Chinese officials are signalling possible policy shifts, heightening uncertainty about
May 8 dips to 1%4%
Reuters reports that Taiwan dominates the agenda for the upcoming Trump‑Xi summit and that Chinese officials are signalling possible policy shifts, heightening uncertainty about whether the visit will actually occur
Reuters notes that Taiwan’s foreign‑ministry warns Beijing that Trump’s visit could alter U.S.
May 31 dips to 69%3%
policy on the island, causing a modest pull‑back
Chinese government releases Announcement No.
May 15 jumps to 70%11%
21, explicitly stating it will not enforce U.S. sanctions on Iranian‑linked entities, signaling strong diplomatic backing for Trump’s visit
Steve Daines leads a bipartisan Senate delegation to China, signaling strong U.S.
May 31 rises to 72%1%
engagement and lifting odds again
Reuters confirms White House reaffirmation of May 14‑15 summit
June 30 jumps to 92%6%
A follow‑up Reuters piece reiterated the White House’s confirmation and added that preparations were “finalizing,” pushing the market to a new high.
| Council on Foreign Relations notes that the May 14‑15 summit will be “of tremendous symbolic significance” after weeks of uncertainty |– expert commentary signalling a firm
June 30 jumps to 91%13%
| Council on Foreign Relations notes that the May 14‑15 summit will be “of tremendous symbolic significance” after weeks of uncertainty |– expert commentary signalling a firm schedule pushed the market higher. |
Trump’s White House press briefing confirms the May 15 state visit to China will proceed as scheduled, calling it “an amazing event” and dismissing any postponement due to the
May 15 jumps to 82%6%
Trump’s White House press briefing confirms the May 15 state visit to China will proceed as scheduled, calling it “an amazing event” and dismissing any postponement due to the Iran war
China warns US about Taiwan ahead of Trump’s Beijing trip
June 30 jumps to 86%9%
The Guardian reported China’s foreign minister warning that Taiwan stability was the biggest risk ahead of the May visit, signalling that Beijing remained engaged and unlikely to cancel, which boosted confidence.
Bloomberg notes a setback: the U.S.
May 31 drops to 68%11%
Senate stalls the Stop‑Chinese‑Fentanyl Act, reviving concerns the visit could be politicised
Fox News interview with Treasury chief Scott Bessent: “No further postponement of China visit” | Bessent’s reassurance that the trip would not be moved again temporarily lowered
June 30 drops to 77%10%
Fox News interview with Treasury chief Scott Bessent: “No further postponement of China visit” | Bessent’s reassurance that the trip would not be moved again temporarily lowered the
Trump’s Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells Fox News the president “does not intend to postpone the visit again,” adding that the Iran‑related “Project Freedom” will start on
May 31 dips to 79%2%
Trump’s Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells Fox News the president “does not intend to postpone the visit again,” adding that the Iran‑related “Project Freedom” will start on May 3, signalling no further delays
Congressional memo details Trump’s increasingly incoherent and volatile behavior, raising alarm about his cognitive fitness
This further confirmed the market’s view that Trump would not undertake a China visit.
White House releases list of U.S.
May 31 jumps to 85%14%
CEOs (Musk, Cook, Fink, etc.) invited to join Trump on the May summit
Global Times editorial calls the lack of recent U.S.
June 30 drops to 79%5%
presidential visits “abnormal” and urges China to welcome Trump, boosting market optimism (small dip reflects broader market volatility)
Reuters article on “Trump’s trade war with China in focus ahead of May summit” highlights renewed U.S.
June 30 rises to 70%4%
tariff actions and confirms the May 14‑15 meeting is still on the agenda, boosting confidence
Chinese foreign ministry says “both sides maintaining communication on Trump’s visit” | While confirming dialogue, the vague statement introduced uncertainty about logistics,
June 30 drops to 79%5%
Chinese foreign ministry says “both sides maintaining communication on Trump’s visit” | While confirming dialogue, the vague statement introduced uncertainty about logistics, nudging the
| [Chinese Foreign Ministry says “both sides are maintaining communication” about the upcoming visit] |
June 30 drops to 81%5%
| 2026-04‑12 | [USCIRF urges Trump to address religious‑freedom repression during the Beijing state visit] | | 2026-04‑16 | [Brookings notes that the Stop Chinese Fentanyl Act remains stalled, but the scheduled summit is still on the calendar] | | 2026-04‑24 | [South China Morning Post publishes a “China trip will go ahead as planned – and it will be amazing” piece quoting Trump’s confidence] | | 2026-05‑01 | [The Diplomat reports the White House’s final itinerary release confirming Trump’s arrival on May 14] | | 2026-05‑04 | [NY Times opinion piece highlights Trump’s diminished standing but confirms the visit will occur, reinforcing market belief] | | 2026-05‑06 | [SCMP series “Trump’s 2026 trip to China” updates with logistics (security, protocol) confirming the visit is imminent] |
Treasury chief Bessent says Trump will not postpone the visit again
June 30 dips to 83%4%
In a Fox News interview, Treasury head Scott Bessent affirmed the trip would not be delayed further, but the statement was paired with news of a new “Project Freedom” operation in the Strait of Hormuz, tempering optimism and nudging the
BBC: “Trump announces ‘Monumental Event’ visit to China on May 14‑15” | Trump’s Truth Social post reiterating the May dates reinforced the schedule, keeping the market near its
June 30 dips to 84%1%
BBC: “Trump announces ‘Monumental Event’ visit to China on May 14‑15” | Trump’s Truth Social post reiterating the May dates reinforced the schedule, keeping the market near its recent high. |
Chinese FM confirms ongoing communication about Trump’s May visit
June 30 surges to 87%16%
Global Times quoted Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian saying “both sides are maintaining communication” on the May 14‑15 dates, which reassured traders and drove a sharp rise.
Reuters: “Trump to meet Xi in Beijing May 14‑15 after Iran war delay” | The White House officially confirmed the rescheduled May visit, restoring confidence that the trip would
June 30 jumps to 85%14%
Reuters: “Trump to meet Xi in Beijing May 14‑15 after Iran war delay” | The White House officially confirmed the rescheduled May visit, restoring confidence that the trip would happen and driving the
Trump announces new dates for China visit on Truth Social
June 30 drops to 71%6%
Trump’s own Truth Social post restated the May 14‑15 schedule, but the same day Reuters noted mixed reactions and lingering doubts about logistics, causing a slight dip.
Trump posts on Truth Social that the May 14‑15 Beijing visit is “finalized,” and the U.S.
June 30 drops to 76%12%
embassy in China releases a statement rescheduling the meeting for those dates
The White House officially announced that Donald Trump's visit to China would take place from May 12 to 15, 2026, postponing the originally planned April visit due to the ongoing
June 30 surges to 87%29%
The White House officially announced that Donald Trump's visit to China would take place from May 12 to 15, 2026, postponing the originally planned April visit due to the ongoing Iran war, signaling a firm commitment to the trip
Trump to visit Xi Jinping in China on May 14‑15 after Iran war delay
June 30 jumps to 77%5%
Al Jazeera reported the White House’s official announcement that the originally‑planned late‑March trip was shifted to mid‑May because of the Iran war, providing the first concrete date and lifting uncertainty.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian says U.S.
June 30 rises to 70%3%
reports of Trump threatening to postpone the China visit over the Strait of Hormuz are “false,” easing concerns of a delay
Iran‑U.S. strikes heighten tension, analysts doubt Trump can travel to China soon | The U.S.
June 30 jumps to 71%7%
and Israel launched wide‑range strikes on Iran, killing its supreme leader, prompting market participants to question whether the planned late‑March China visit could proceed. |
China’s foreign‑ministry spokesperson Lin Jian reiterates that the U.S.
June 30 drops to 67%11%
has clarified the visit is not linked to the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns of another postponement
| U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and discusses President Trump’s planned China visit |– early diplomatic talks lifted confidence that a
June 30 rises to 72%4%
| U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and discusses President Trump’s planned China visit |– early diplomatic talks lifted confidence that a visit was being prepared, nudging the
Trump dismisses health concerns in a Wall Street Journal interview, claiming “My health is perfect”
Despite denials, the market remained at zero, reflecting entrenched skepticism.
The New York Times publishes analysis highlighting Trump’s aging and declining stamina as the oldest president
This reinforced the market’s final assessment that a China visit was highly unlikely.
White House physician Dr. Sean Barbabella publicly confirms Trump’s health assessments but acknowledges chronic venous insufficiency diagnosis
April 30 dips to 0%2%
Despite official statements, ongoing health concerns and lack of any visit plans led the market to collapse to near zero.
Daily Beast and other outlets report speculation that Trump may have suffered a stroke earlier in 2025
April 30 jumps to 28%14%
The stroke speculation briefly increased uncertainty and market volatility, causing a small rebound in
Media reports and viral videos show Trump exhibiting signs of physical decline, including dragging his right leg and visible bruising
April 30 plunges to 25%61%
These visible health issues triggered a sharp market drop, reflecting doubts about his physical capability to travel internationally.
White House releases memo stating Trump’s October 2024 CT scan results were “perfectly normal”
April 30 drops to 86%8%
Official reassurance about Trump’s cardiovascular health temporarily boosted confidence, but skepticism remained.
Trump undergoes Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) test amid rising health scrutiny
April 30 dips to 75%2%
The cognitive test raised questions about Trump’s mental fitness, causing a slight dip in market confidence about his ability to travel.
Simon Tisdall reports early signs of internal battle over Trump’s succession amid health concerns
April 30 surges to 78%27%
This report highlighted emerging doubts about Trump’s health and succession plans, increasing speculation about his future actions including foreign visits.
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