**US military actions in Venezuela since early 2026 have centered on targeted strikes, regime pressure, and resource agreements rather than a broad ground invasion.** Following the January capture of Nicolás Maduro and related operations, the US has conducted repeated naval and aerial strikes on suspected drug vessels in the Caribbean, coordinated limited actions with Venezuelan authorities, and secured an August oil deal granting significant control over reserves. Diplomatic ties have resumed, with an embassy reopening and interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez. Trader odds for a full-scale US invasion by December 31, 2026, sit near 13%, reflecting the absence of large-scale troop deployments or territorial occupation beyond specific anti-cartel and support missions. Key variables include sustained naval presence in the region, outcomes of Maduro-related legal proceedings, Venezuelan political transitions, and any escalation tied to drug trafficking or oil interests.