Trader consensus on Polymarket implies former President Trump's approval rating on April 3 will fall in the 39.5–39.9% bin (41.5¢), with adjacent outcomes totaling 78% probability, reflecting stable late-March national polling averages around 39–41%. Key drivers include a March 29–April 1 YouGov poll at 42% approval/52% disapproval, CBS March 27–31 at 40%, and Rasmussen April 1 at 46%, tempered by broader aggregates like FiveThirtyEight's ~41% average amid partisan divides. Recent catalysts feature Trump's Michigan primary win on March 27 boosting GOP turnout signals, offset by intensifying hush money trial preparations set for April 15 and steady economic pessimism. No major shifts in the past 48 hours, with upcoming Wisconsin primary on April 2 potentially influencing sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated39.5–39.9 42%
40.0–40.4 30%
39.0–39.4 24%
<39.0 13%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
<39.0
13%
39.0–39.4
24%
39.5–39.9
42%
40.0–40.4
22%
40.5–40.9
13%
41.0+
10%
39.5–39.9 42%
40.0–40.4 30%
39.0–39.4 24%
<39.0 13%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
<39.0
$132 Vol.
13%
39.0–39.4
$5 Vol.
24%
39.5–39.9
$5 Vol.
42%
40.0–40.4
$17 Vol.
22%
40.5–40.9
$5 Vol.
13%
41.0+
$5 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on April 3, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies former President Trump's approval rating on April 3 will fall in the 39.5–39.9% bin (41.5¢), with adjacent outcomes totaling 78% probability, reflecting stable late-March national polling averages around 39–41%. Key drivers include a March 29–April 1 YouGov poll at 42% approval/52% disapproval, CBS March 27–31 at 40%, and Rasmussen April 1 at 46%, tempered by broader aggregates like FiveThirtyEight's ~41% average amid partisan divides. Recent catalysts feature Trump's Michigan primary win on March 27 boosting GOP turnout signals, offset by intensifying hush money trial preparations set for April 15 and steady economic pessimism. No major shifts in the past 48 hours, with upcoming Wisconsin primary on April 2 potentially influencing sentiment.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on April 3, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 11:15 AM ET
Volume
$127End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on April 3, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies former President Trump's approval rating on April 3 will fall in the 39.5–39.9% bin (41.5¢), with adjacent outcomes totaling 78% probability, reflecting stable late-March national polling averages around 39–41%. Key drivers include a March 29–April 1 YouGov poll at 42% approval/52% disapproval, CBS March 27–31 at 40%, and Rasmussen April 1 at 46%, tempered by broader aggregates like FiveThirtyEight's ~41% average amid partisan divides. Recent catalysts feature Trump's Michigan primary win on March 27 boosting GOP turnout signals, offset by intensifying hush money trial preparations set for April 15 and steady economic pessimism. No major shifts in the past 48 hours, with upcoming Wisconsin primary on April 2 potentially influencing sentiment.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on April 3, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$127End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 27, 2026, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies former President Trump's approval rating on April 3 will fall in the 39.5–39.9% bin (41.5¢), with adjacent outcomes totaling 78% probability, reflecting stable late-March national polling averages around 39–41%. Key drivers include a March 29–April 1 YouGov poll at 42% approval/52% disapproval, CBS March 27–31 at 40%, and Rasmussen April 1 at 46%, tempered by broader aggregates like FiveThirtyEight's ~41% average amid partisan divides. Recent catalysts feature Trump's Michigan primary win on March 27 boosting GOP turnout signals, offset by intensifying hush money trial preparations set for April 15 and steady economic pessimism. No major shifts in the past 48 hours, with upcoming Wisconsin primary on April 2 potentially influencing sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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