The stringent requirements for amending the U.S. Constitution drive the 96.5% trader consensus against repeal of presidential term limits in 2026. Any change to the Twenty-second Amendment would need two-thirds approval in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification by three-fourths of the states, a threshold unmet by prior repeal efforts and unattainable under current partisan divisions. A 2025 House resolution to permit a third nonconsecutive term for eligible presidents advanced no further than committee referral. President Trump has repeatedly referenced legal barriers in 2026 statements, describing the limits as “very strong” despite occasional public speculation about future runs. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 add further uncertainty but no procedural pathway for swift action. Late developments such as unexpected bipartisan consensus or court rulings altering amendment rules remain the only narrow routes that could shift probabilities before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$14,103 Vol.
$14,103 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
$14,103 Vol.
$14,103 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.The stringent requirements for amending the U.S. Constitution drive the 96.5% trader consensus against repeal of presidential term limits in 2026. Any change to the Twenty-second Amendment would need two-thirds approval in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification by three-fourths of the states, a threshold unmet by prior repeal efforts and unattainable under current partisan divisions. A 2025 House resolution to permit a third nonconsecutive term for eligible presidents advanced no further than committee referral. President Trump has repeatedly referenced legal barriers in 2026 statements, describing the limits as “very strong” despite occasional public speculation about future runs. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 add further uncertainty but no procedural pathway for swift action. Late developments such as unexpected bipartisan consensus or court rulings altering amendment rules remain the only narrow routes that could shift probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Market Opened: Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$14,103End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.The stringent requirements for amending the U.S. Constitution drive the 96.5% trader consensus against repeal of presidential term limits in 2026. Any change to the Twenty-second Amendment would need two-thirds approval in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification by three-fourths of the states, a threshold unmet by prior repeal efforts and unattainable under current partisan divisions. A 2025 House resolution to permit a third nonconsecutive term for eligible presidents advanced no further than committee referral. President Trump has repeatedly referenced legal barriers in 2026 statements, describing the limits as “very strong” despite occasional public speculation about future runs. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 add further uncertainty but no procedural pathway for swift action. Late developments such as unexpected bipartisan consensus or court rulings altering amendment rules remain the only narrow routes that could shift probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, such a bill is otherwise passed into law, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.
Volume
$14,103End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The stringent requirements for amending the U.S. Constitution drive the 96.5% trader consensus against repeal of presidential term limits in 2026. Any change to the Twenty-second Amendment would need two-thirds approval in both chambers of Congress followed by ratification by three-fourths of the states, a threshold unmet by prior repeal efforts and unattainable under current partisan divisions. A 2025 House resolution to permit a third nonconsecutive term for eligible presidents advanced no further than committee referral. President Trump has repeatedly referenced legal barriers in 2026 statements, describing the limits as “very strong” despite occasional public speculation about future runs. Midterm elections scheduled for November 2026 add further uncertainty but no procedural pathway for swift action. Late developments such as unexpected bipartisan consensus or court rulings altering amendment rules remain the only narrow routes that could shift probabilities before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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