Incumbent Democrat Ted Lieu holds a commanding position in California's 36th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting the area's strong Democratic lean and his established record. Lieu advanced from the June top-two primary with roughly 61% of the vote against a fragmented field, while Republican Houston Brignano secured second place at about 15%. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district's partisan voter index and registration advantages. Brignano, a technology executive, trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. Trader consensus at 95% for Lieu aligns with these structural factors. A major scandal, health event affecting Lieu, or unusually strong Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though no such developments have emerged in recent months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-36 House Election Winner
CA-36 House Election Winner
$35,246 Vol.
$35,246 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Ted Lieu (D)
95%
Houston Brignano (R)
5%
$35,246 Vol.
$35,246 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Ted Lieu (D)
$6,302 Vol.
95%
Houston Brignano (R)
$28,944 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ted Lieu holds a commanding position in California's 36th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting the area's strong Democratic lean and his established record. Lieu advanced from the June top-two primary with roughly 61% of the vote against a fragmented field, while Republican Houston Brignano secured second place at about 15%. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district's partisan voter index and registration advantages. Brignano, a technology executive, trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. Trader consensus at 95% for Lieu aligns with these structural factors. A major scandal, health event affecting Lieu, or unusually strong Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though no such developments have emerged in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$35,246End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ted Lieu holds a commanding position in California's 36th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting the area's strong Democratic lean and his established record. Lieu advanced from the June top-two primary with roughly 61% of the vote against a fragmented field, while Republican Houston Brignano secured second place at about 15%. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district's partisan voter index and registration advantages. Brignano, a technology executive, trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. Trader consensus at 95% for Lieu aligns with these structural factors. A major scandal, health event affecting Lieu, or unusually strong Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though no such developments have emerged in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,246End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Ted Lieu holds a commanding position in California's 36th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting the area's strong Democratic lean and his established record. Lieu advanced from the June top-two primary with roughly 61% of the vote against a fragmented field, while Republican Houston Brignano secured second place at about 15%. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district's partisan voter index and registration advantages. Brignano, a technology executive, trails significantly in fundraising and visibility. Trader consensus at 95% for Lieu aligns with these structural factors. A major scandal, health event affecting Lieu, or unusually strong Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though no such developments have emerged in recent months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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