Incumbent Gil Cisneros secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary with over 61 percent of the vote against Republican challengers Eric Ching and Erskine Levi, advancing to face Ching in November. California's 31st district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in consistent ratings such as Solid D from the Cook Political Report and the limited Republican performance in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent for the Democratic nominee aligns with these structural factors, including incumbency advantages and historical turnout patterns in the Los Angeles-area seat. A shift would require an unforeseen national political realignment, major candidate-specific developments, or substantial changes in voter registration ahead of the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-31 House Election Winner
CA-31 House Election Winner
$15,927 Vol.
$15,927 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$15,927 Vol.
$15,927 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$7,679 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$8,248 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Gil Cisneros secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary with over 61 percent of the vote against Republican challengers Eric Ching and Erskine Levi, advancing to face Ching in November. California's 31st district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in consistent ratings such as Solid D from the Cook Political Report and the limited Republican performance in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent for the Democratic nominee aligns with these structural factors, including incumbency advantages and historical turnout patterns in the Los Angeles-area seat. A shift would require an unforeseen national political realignment, major candidate-specific developments, or substantial changes in voter registration ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$15,927End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Gil Cisneros secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary with over 61 percent of the vote against Republican challengers Eric Ching and Erskine Levi, advancing to face Ching in November. California's 31st district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in consistent ratings such as Solid D from the Cook Political Report and the limited Republican performance in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent for the Democratic nominee aligns with these structural factors, including incumbency advantages and historical turnout patterns in the Los Angeles-area seat. A shift would require an unforeseen national political realignment, major candidate-specific developments, or substantial changes in voter registration ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,927End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Gil Cisneros secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary with over 61 percent of the vote against Republican challengers Eric Ching and Erskine Levi, advancing to face Ching in November. California's 31st district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in consistent ratings such as Solid D from the Cook Political Report and the limited Republican performance in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent for the Democratic nominee aligns with these structural factors, including incumbency advantages and historical turnout patterns in the Los Angeles-area seat. A shift would require an unforeseen national political realignment, major candidate-specific developments, or substantial changes in voter registration ahead of the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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