The broad spread of probabilities across numerous states reflects trader assessment of which 2026 gubernatorial contests are most likely to produce the smallest vote margins, driven by current polling tightness, candidate fields, and state-level political dynamics. Texas, Alaska, and Ohio lead due to large electorates, shifting voter coalitions in suburban and rural areas, and historical patterns of narrow outcomes in off-year cycles. Nevada, Florida, and Georgia follow, with factors including demographic turnout trends, primary results, and alignment with national midterm sentiment potentially narrowing or widening gaps. Upcoming candidate announcements, debate schedules, and late-cycle polling could consolidate support toward one outcome by clarifying frontrunner advantages or exposing vulnerabilities in battleground environments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTexas 14.3%
Alaska 13.9%
Ohio 13.7%
Nevada 11%
$18,347 Vol.
$18,347 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
14%
Alaska
14%
Ohio
14%
Nevada
11%
Florida
10%
Georgia
9%
Iowa
6%
Oregon
5%
Colorado
3%
Vermont
3%
Kansas
3%
New Hampshire
3%
Minnesota
3%
New Mexico
2%
Arizona
2%
Michigan
2%
Wisconsin
2%
Maine
1%
Texas 14.3%
Alaska 13.9%
Ohio 13.7%
Nevada 11%
$18,347 Vol.
$18,347 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
$1,784 Vol.
14%
Alaska
$279 Vol.
14%
Ohio
$845 Vol.
14%
Nevada
$3,835 Vol.
11%
Florida
$976 Vol.
10%
Georgia
$1,005 Vol.
9%
Iowa
$1,869 Vol.
6%
Oregon
$346 Vol.
5%
Colorado
$273 Vol.
3%
Vermont
$196 Vol.
3%
Kansas
$3,194 Vol.
3%
New Hampshire
$549 Vol.
3%
Minnesota
$329 Vol.
3%
New Mexico
$328 Vol.
2%
Arizona
$307 Vol.
2%
Michigan
$349 Vol.
2%
Wisconsin
$1,508 Vol.
2%
Maine
$375 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The broad spread of probabilities across numerous states reflects trader assessment of which 2026 gubernatorial contests are most likely to produce the smallest vote margins, driven by current polling tightness, candidate fields, and state-level political dynamics. Texas, Alaska, and Ohio lead due to large electorates, shifting voter coalitions in suburban and rural areas, and historical patterns of narrow outcomes in off-year cycles. Nevada, Florida, and Georgia follow, with factors including demographic turnout trends, primary results, and alignment with national midterm sentiment potentially narrowing or widening gaps. Upcoming candidate announcements, debate schedules, and late-cycle polling could consolidate support toward one outcome by clarifying frontrunner advantages or exposing vulnerabilities in battleground environments.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$18,347End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The broad spread of probabilities across numerous states reflects trader assessment of which 2026 gubernatorial contests are most likely to produce the smallest vote margins, driven by current polling tightness, candidate fields, and state-level political dynamics. Texas, Alaska, and Ohio lead due to large electorates, shifting voter coalitions in suburban and rural areas, and historical patterns of narrow outcomes in off-year cycles. Nevada, Florida, and Georgia follow, with factors including demographic turnout trends, primary results, and alignment with national midterm sentiment potentially narrowing or widening gaps. Upcoming candidate announcements, debate schedules, and late-cycle polling could consolidate support toward one outcome by clarifying frontrunner advantages or exposing vulnerabilities in battleground environments.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$18,347End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The broad spread of probabilities across numerous states reflects trader assessment of which 2026 gubernatorial contests are most likely to produce the smallest vote margins, driven by current polling tightness, candidate fields, and state-level political dynamics. Texas, Alaska, and Ohio lead due to large electorates, shifting voter coalitions in suburban and rural areas, and historical patterns of narrow outcomes in off-year cycles. Nevada, Florida, and Georgia follow, with factors including demographic turnout trends, primary results, and alignment with national midterm sentiment potentially narrowing or widening gaps. Upcoming candidate announcements, debate schedules, and late-cycle polling could consolidate support toward one outcome by clarifying frontrunner advantages or exposing vulnerabilities in battleground environments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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