Recent national polling shows Democrats holding a 7- to 8-point generic ballot advantage, reflecting an unfavorable environment for the president's party two months before the November 3 midterm. This dynamic has concentrated trader attention on six toss-up Senate contests, five of them Republican-held: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, plus Michigan's open Democratic seat. Forecasters highlight open races in North Carolina, where Democrat Roy Cooper leads, and Michigan, alongside incumbent matchups such as Susan Collins in Maine and Jon Husted versus Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Low presidential approval and candidate recruitment have kept these races within narrow polling margins, with outcomes hinging on turnout in battleground states and any late shifts in the national environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$65,519 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
81%
Alaska
70%
Iowa
69%
Kansas
70%
Michigan
58%
Ohio (Special)
56%
Maine
43%
Nebraska
43%
New Hampshire
37%
North Carolina
28%
Florida (Special)
25%
Minnesota
23%
Georgia
20%
New Mexico
13%
Montana
11%
Virginia
5%
Colorado
4%
South Carolina
60%
$65,519 Vol.
Texas
$7,280 Vol.
81%
Alaska
$2,853 Vol.
70%
Iowa
$5,840 Vol.
69%
Kansas
$571 Vol.
70%
Michigan
$3,054 Vol.
58%
Ohio (Special)
$3,967 Vol.
56%
Maine
$1,119 Vol.
43%
Nebraska
$3,809 Vol.
43%
New Hampshire
$2,422 Vol.
37%
North Carolina
$5,817 Vol.
28%
Florida (Special)
$2,450 Vol.
25%
Minnesota
$10,369 Vol.
23%
Georgia
$2,057 Vol.
20%
New Mexico
$6,665 Vol.
13%
Montana
$3,190 Vol.
11%
Virginia
$1,344 Vol.
5%
Colorado
$2,599 Vol.
4%
South Carolina
$109 Vol.
60%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent national polling shows Democrats holding a 7- to 8-point generic ballot advantage, reflecting an unfavorable environment for the president's party two months before the November 3 midterm. This dynamic has concentrated trader attention on six toss-up Senate contests, five of them Republican-held: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, plus Michigan's open Democratic seat. Forecasters highlight open races in North Carolina, where Democrat Roy Cooper leads, and Michigan, alongside incumbent matchups such as Susan Collins in Maine and Jon Husted versus Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Low presidential approval and candidate recruitment have kept these races within narrow polling margins, with outcomes hinging on turnout in battleground states and any late shifts in the national environment.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$65,519End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent national polling shows Democrats holding a 7- to 8-point generic ballot advantage, reflecting an unfavorable environment for the president's party two months before the November 3 midterm. This dynamic has concentrated trader attention on six toss-up Senate contests, five of them Republican-held: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, plus Michigan's open Democratic seat. Forecasters highlight open races in North Carolina, where Democrat Roy Cooper leads, and Michigan, alongside incumbent matchups such as Susan Collins in Maine and Jon Husted versus Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Low presidential approval and candidate recruitment have kept these races within narrow polling margins, with outcomes hinging on turnout in battleground states and any late shifts in the national environment.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$65,519End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent national polling shows Democrats holding a 7- to 8-point generic ballot advantage, reflecting an unfavorable environment for the president's party two months before the November 3 midterm. This dynamic has concentrated trader attention on six toss-up Senate contests, five of them Republican-held: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, plus Michigan's open Democratic seat. Forecasters highlight open races in North Carolina, where Democrat Roy Cooper leads, and Michigan, alongside incumbent matchups such as Susan Collins in Maine and Jon Husted versus Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Low presidential approval and candidate recruitment have kept these races within narrow polling margins, with outcomes hinging on turnout in battleground states and any late shifts in the national environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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