Recent polling aggregates show multiple 2026 Senate contests clustered near even, driven by President Trump's net-negative approval ratings near 40% and several open seats. Texas, Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, New Hampshire, Maine, and Iowa currently register the tightest margins, with most within or just outside 5 points in late-summer surveys. Open Democratic retirements in Michigan and New Hampshire, combined with strong challengers such as Roy Cooper in North Carolina and competitive recruitment in farm states facing tariff and price pressures, have kept these races fluid. Republicans defend more seats overall, yet the national environment and candidate matchups have narrowed gaps in states that leaned Republican in 2024. Traders price these battlegrounds as the primary variables determining whether margins stay inside 5%, with the November 3 election serving as the resolution trigger.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$62,810 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
83%
Kansas
70%
Alaska
68%
Michigan
62%
Iowa
62%
Ohio (Special)
56%
Maine
53%
New Hampshire
52%
Nebraska
48%
Georgia
27%
North Carolina
26%
Florida (Special)
25%
Minnesota
23%
New Mexico
12%
Montana
8%
Colorado
4%
Virginia
4%
South Carolina
51%
$62,810 Vol.
Texas
$7,130 Vol.
83%
Kansas
$556 Vol.
70%
Alaska
$2,789 Vol.
68%
Michigan
$2,743 Vol.
62%
Iowa
$5,645 Vol.
62%
Ohio (Special)
$3,936 Vol.
56%
Maine
$1,020 Vol.
53%
New Hampshire
$2,356 Vol.
52%
Nebraska
$3,687 Vol.
48%
Georgia
$1,394 Vol.
27%
North Carolina
$5,753 Vol.
26%
Florida (Special)
$2,450 Vol.
25%
Minnesota
$9,715 Vol.
23%
New Mexico
$6,665 Vol.
12%
Montana
$2,919 Vol.
8%
Colorado
$2,599 Vol.
4%
Virginia
$1,344 Vol.
4%
South Carolina
$109 Vol.
51%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling aggregates show multiple 2026 Senate contests clustered near even, driven by President Trump's net-negative approval ratings near 40% and several open seats. Texas, Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, New Hampshire, Maine, and Iowa currently register the tightest margins, with most within or just outside 5 points in late-summer surveys. Open Democratic retirements in Michigan and New Hampshire, combined with strong challengers such as Roy Cooper in North Carolina and competitive recruitment in farm states facing tariff and price pressures, have kept these races fluid. Republicans defend more seats overall, yet the national environment and candidate matchups have narrowed gaps in states that leaned Republican in 2024. Traders price these battlegrounds as the primary variables determining whether margins stay inside 5%, with the November 3 election serving as the resolution trigger.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$62,810End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling aggregates show multiple 2026 Senate contests clustered near even, driven by President Trump's net-negative approval ratings near 40% and several open seats. Texas, Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, New Hampshire, Maine, and Iowa currently register the tightest margins, with most within or just outside 5 points in late-summer surveys. Open Democratic retirements in Michigan and New Hampshire, combined with strong challengers such as Roy Cooper in North Carolina and competitive recruitment in farm states facing tariff and price pressures, have kept these races fluid. Republicans defend more seats overall, yet the national environment and candidate matchups have narrowed gaps in states that leaned Republican in 2024. Traders price these battlegrounds as the primary variables determining whether margins stay inside 5%, with the November 3 election serving as the resolution trigger.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$62,810End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling aggregates show multiple 2026 Senate contests clustered near even, driven by President Trump's net-negative approval ratings near 40% and several open seats. Texas, Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, New Hampshire, Maine, and Iowa currently register the tightest margins, with most within or just outside 5 points in late-summer surveys. Open Democratic retirements in Michigan and New Hampshire, combined with strong challengers such as Roy Cooper in North Carolina and competitive recruitment in farm states facing tariff and price pressures, have kept these races fluid. Republicans defend more seats overall, yet the national environment and candidate matchups have narrowed gaps in states that leaned Republican in 2024. Traders price these battlegrounds as the primary variables determining whether margins stay inside 5%, with the November 3 election serving as the resolution trigger.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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