Multiple toss-up Senate races feature projected margins under three points, with recent polling showing Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, Maine, and Ohio clustered within roughly D+3 to R+3. Open seats in Iowa and Michigan, plus the Ohio special, have drawn strong candidates and sustained campaign spending that keeps outcomes volatile. A national environment with a Democratic generic ballot edge has narrowed several Republican-held seats without producing clear separation in any single contest. Late-cycle polls, turnout shifts in swing counties, and last-minute events could compress or widen these margins, preserving the tight distribution reflected in current trader pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTexas 16%
Iowa 14.3%
Michigan 10.7%
Alaska 11%
$40,358 Vol.
$40,358 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
16%
Iowa
14%
Michigan
11%
Alaska
11%
Nebraska
9%
Ohio (Special)
9%
Maine
9%
North Carolina
5%
New Hampshire
4%
Virginia
3%
Florida (Special)
3%
Georgia
2%
New Mexico
2%
Minnesota
1%
Montana
1%
Colorado
<1%
Texas 16%
Iowa 14.3%
Michigan 10.7%
Alaska 11%
$40,358 Vol.
$40,358 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
$1,876 Vol.
16%
Iowa
$3,287 Vol.
14%
Michigan
$2,998 Vol.
11%
Alaska
$7,695 Vol.
11%
Nebraska
$1,564 Vol.
9%
Ohio (Special)
$8,979 Vol.
9%
Maine
$1,398 Vol.
9%
North Carolina
$1,483 Vol.
5%
New Hampshire
$788 Vol.
4%
Virginia
$5,073 Vol.
3%
Florida (Special)
$253 Vol.
3%
Georgia
$824 Vol.
2%
New Mexico
$160 Vol.
2%
Minnesota
$1,494 Vol.
1%
Montana
$1,383 Vol.
1%
Colorado
$1,103 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Multiple toss-up Senate races feature projected margins under three points, with recent polling showing Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, Maine, and Ohio clustered within roughly D+3 to R+3. Open seats in Iowa and Michigan, plus the Ohio special, have drawn strong candidates and sustained campaign spending that keeps outcomes volatile. A national environment with a Democratic generic ballot edge has narrowed several Republican-held seats without producing clear separation in any single contest. Late-cycle polls, turnout shifts in swing counties, and last-minute events could compress or widen these margins, preserving the tight distribution reflected in current trader pricing.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volume
$40,358End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Multiple toss-up Senate races feature projected margins under three points, with recent polling showing Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, Maine, and Ohio clustered within roughly D+3 to R+3. Open seats in Iowa and Michigan, plus the Ohio special, have drawn strong candidates and sustained campaign spending that keeps outcomes volatile. A national environment with a Democratic generic ballot edge has narrowed several Republican-held seats without producing clear separation in any single contest. Late-cycle polls, turnout shifts in swing counties, and last-minute events could compress or widen these margins, preserving the tight distribution reflected in current trader pricing.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$40,358End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Multiple toss-up Senate races feature projected margins under three points, with recent polling showing Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, Maine, and Ohio clustered within roughly D+3 to R+3. Open seats in Iowa and Michigan, plus the Ohio special, have drawn strong candidates and sustained campaign spending that keeps outcomes volatile. A national environment with a Democratic generic ballot edge has narrowed several Republican-held seats without producing clear separation in any single contest. Late-cycle polls, turnout shifts in swing counties, and last-minute events could compress or widen these margins, preserving the tight distribution reflected in current trader pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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