The Jetten minority cabinet, formed in February 2026 after the collapse of the prior Schoof coalition and the 2025 elections, currently governs with D66, VVD, and CDA support holding roughly 66 of 150 seats in the Tweede Kamer. Traders assign only an 8.5% chance of dissolution this year because the new centre to centre-right government has clear incentives to complete its term through the 2027 scheduled elections, has already navigated initial parliamentary tests, and faces no immediate triggers such as a no-confidence vote, budget impasse, or coalition breakdown. Recent reporting highlights ongoing efforts to advance defense spending and housing priorities while managing minority status through ad-hoc opposition deals, reducing near-term risk of early elections. The absence of fresh crises since the February swearing-in reinforces the market consensus that the House is unlikely to be dissolved before year-end.