The February 2026 snap election, held after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi dissolved the House of Representatives in late January, reset the lower house term under Japan's mixed electoral system and delivered the Liberal Democratic Party a post-war record supermajority of 316 seats in coalition with the Japan Innovation Party. This outcome, combined with opposition fragmentation following the Centrist Reform Alliance's collapse, has produced a stable Diet session through September with no procedural or political triggers for further dissolution before year-end. Traders assign 96.4% probability to no additional dissolution in 2026 because the current mandate extends into 2030 absent extraordinary developments. Late-year shifts remain possible from major scandals, coalition fractures, or acute economic or security crises that erode the ruling bloc's position.