Recent statements from the two oldest justices have anchored trader expectations against a U.S. Supreme Court vacancy in 2026. In early August, Justice Samuel Alito, 76, told the Wall Street Journal he is serving “another term,” directly addressing and dismissing retirement speculation that followed an erroneous June NPR report. Sources close to Justice Clarence Thomas, 78, have similarly indicated no plans to step down this year, consistent with his prior comments on longevity. No other justices have signaled departures, and no health or institutional developments have emerged to alter the nine-member composition. With the October 2025–June 2026 term underway and midterms approaching, these confirmations of continued service underpin the 84% implied probability that no vacancy will occur before year-end.