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icon for Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)

Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)

icon for Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)

Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)

The Super Bowl LX Halftime Show starring Bad Bunny 90.5%

The Oscars 5.9%

The Tonys 3.3%

The Grammys <1%

Polymarket

$60,641 Vol.

The Super Bowl LX Halftime Show starring Bad Bunny 90.5%

The Oscars 5.9%

The Tonys 3.3%

The Grammys <1%

Polymarket

$60,641 Vol.

The Super Bowl LX Halftime Show starring Bad Bunny

$48,290 Vol.

90%

The Oscars

$6,936 Vol.

6%

The Tonys

$2,152 Vol.

3%

The Grammys

$1,790 Vol.

1%

The Golden Globes

$1,797 Vol.

<1%

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety special (live)”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show starring Bad Bunny holds overwhelming market-implied odds due to its record nine Emmy nominations in July 2026—the most ever for a halftime performance—following a widely praised February 8 show that celebrated Puerto Rican culture, drew 128.2 million viewers, and featured high-profile guests like Lady Gaga and Ricky Martin. Recent critical acclaim for its production design, choreography, and music direction, plus the category’s recent preference for live Super Bowl specials, have cemented trader consensus around its frontrunner status ahead of the September 14 ceremony. The Oscars, Tonys, Grammys, and Golden Globes trail as traditional competitors with weaker recent momentum in the live variety special race. An upset would require voters to unexpectedly favor one of the awards broadcasts over the halftime show’s technical excellence and cultural resonance, a scenario with little historical precedent in the category.

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California

This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety special (live)”.

If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$60,641
End Date
Sep 14, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 8:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety special (live)”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety special (live)”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show starring Bad Bunny holds overwhelming market-implied odds due to its record nine Emmy nominations in July 2026—the most ever for a halftime performance—following a widely praised February 8 show that celebrated Puerto Rican culture, drew 128.2 million viewers, and featured high-profile guests like Lady Gaga and Ricky Martin. Recent critical acclaim for its production design, choreography, and music direction, plus the category’s recent preference for live Super Bowl specials, have cemented trader consensus around its frontrunner status ahead of the September 14 ceremony. The Oscars, Tonys, Grammys, and Golden Globes trail as traditional competitors with weaker recent momentum in the live variety special race. An upset would require voters to unexpectedly favor one of the awards broadcasts over the halftime show’s technical excellence and cultural resonance, a scenario with little historical precedent in the category.

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California

This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety special (live)”.

If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$60,641
End Date
Sep 14, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 8:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety special (live)”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "The Super Bowl LX Halftime Show starring Bad Bunny" at 90%, followed by "The Oscars" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 90¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)" has generated $60.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)" is "The Super Bowl LX Halftime Show starring Bad Bunny" at 90%, meaning the market assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "The Oscars" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.