Mid-June subtropical monsoon conditions in Guangzhou typically drive daily maximum temperatures to 31–33°C, as reflected in long-term climatological averages and 2026 seasonal forecasts showing highs routinely reaching or exceeding 32°C amid warm, humid southerly airflow. The market’s 100% implied probability for this threshold aligns with the low historical variance in early summer peak readings and current observational trends indicating stable atmospheric patterns. While an unexpected cold front or prolonged heavy cloud cover could theoretically suppress readings below 32°C, such developments remain statistically uncommon this time of year and are not supported by prevailing model consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on June 15?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 15?
32°C or higher 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$34,994 Vol.
$34,994 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
Yes
32°C or higher 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$34,994 Vol.
$34,994 Vol.
Jun 15, 2026
22°C or below
$766 Vol.
No
23°C
$150 Vol.
No
24°C
$698 Vol.
No
25°C
$710 Vol.
No
26°C
$2,086 Vol.
No
27°C
$3,954 Vol.
No
28°C
$3,993 Vol.
No
29°C
$3,483 Vol.
No
30°C
$5,349 Vol.
No
31°C
$6,179 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$7,625 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Mid-June subtropical monsoon conditions in Guangzhou typically drive daily maximum temperatures to 31–33°C, as reflected in long-term climatological averages and 2026 seasonal forecasts showing highs routinely reaching or exceeding 32°C amid warm, humid southerly airflow. The market’s 100% implied probability for this threshold aligns with the low historical variance in early summer peak readings and current observational trends indicating stable atmospheric patterns. While an unexpected cold front or prolonged heavy cloud cover could theoretically suppress readings below 32°C, such developments remain statistically uncommon this time of year and are not supported by prevailing model consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 13, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$34,994End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Mid-June subtropical monsoon conditions in Guangzhou typically drive daily maximum temperatures to 31–33°C, as reflected in long-term climatological averages and 2026 seasonal forecasts showing highs routinely reaching or exceeding 32°C amid warm, humid southerly airflow. The market’s 100% implied probability for this threshold aligns with the low historical variance in early summer peak readings and current observational trends indicating stable atmospheric patterns. While an unexpected cold front or prolonged heavy cloud cover could theoretically suppress readings below 32°C, such developments remain statistically uncommon this time of year and are not supported by prevailing model consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$34,994End Date
Jun 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Mid-June subtropical monsoon conditions in Guangzhou typically drive daily maximum temperatures to 31–33°C, as reflected in long-term climatological averages and 2026 seasonal forecasts showing highs routinely reaching or exceeding 32°C amid warm, humid southerly airflow. The market’s 100% implied probability for this threshold aligns with the low historical variance in early summer peak readings and current observational trends indicating stable atmospheric patterns. While an unexpected cold front or prolonged heavy cloud cover could theoretically suppress readings below 32°C, such developments remain statistically uncommon this time of year and are not supported by prevailing model consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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