Traders are heavily favoring 94-95°F (44% implied probability) as the peak temperature in Houston on July 25, 2026, followed by 92-93°F (27%), reflecting consensus from National Weather Service and model guidance showing typical midsummer conditions under a building subtropical ridge. Normal highs for late July at Houston Intercontinental Airport average 94-96°F, driven by strong insolation, southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico, and minimal cloud cover early in the day. Recent developments include an expanding heat dome across Texas that has produced highs in the mid-90s to near 100°F in prior days, with limited afternoon convection expected to provide slight cooling without widespread rain. Model runs show low precipitation chances and dew points in the mid-70s, supporting heat indices above 105°F but limiting extreme outliers. Any late-day sea breeze or scattered storms could cap readings near the lower end of the favored range, while stronger subsidence would push toward 96-97°F.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on July 25?
Highest temperature in Houston on July 25?
92-93°F 48%
94-95°F 35%
96-97°F 12%
90-91°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Jul 25, 2026
83°F or below
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
6%
92-93°F
48%
94-95°F
35%
96-97°F
12%
98-99°F
1%
100-101°F
<1%
102°F or higher
<1%
92-93°F 48%
94-95°F 35%
96-97°F 12%
90-91°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Jul 25, 2026
83°F or below
$267 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$193 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$198 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$204 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$434 Vol.
6%
92-93°F
$4,578 Vol.
48%
94-95°F
$559 Vol.
35%
96-97°F
$520 Vol.
12%
98-99°F
$234 Vol.
1%
100-101°F
$260 Vol.
<1%
102°F or higher
$194 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders are heavily favoring 94-95°F (44% implied probability) as the peak temperature in Houston on July 25, 2026, followed by 92-93°F (27%), reflecting consensus from National Weather Service and model guidance showing typical midsummer conditions under a building subtropical ridge. Normal highs for late July at Houston Intercontinental Airport average 94-96°F, driven by strong insolation, southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico, and minimal cloud cover early in the day. Recent developments include an expanding heat dome across Texas that has produced highs in the mid-90s to near 100°F in prior days, with limited afternoon convection expected to provide slight cooling without widespread rain. Model runs show low precipitation chances and dew points in the mid-70s, supporting heat indices above 105°F but limiting extreme outliers. Any late-day sea breeze or scattered storms could cap readings near the lower end of the favored range, while stronger subsidence would push toward 96-97°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$7,642End Date
Jul 25, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders are heavily favoring 94-95°F (44% implied probability) as the peak temperature in Houston on July 25, 2026, followed by 92-93°F (27%), reflecting consensus from National Weather Service and model guidance showing typical midsummer conditions under a building subtropical ridge. Normal highs for late July at Houston Intercontinental Airport average 94-96°F, driven by strong insolation, southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico, and minimal cloud cover early in the day. Recent developments include an expanding heat dome across Texas that has produced highs in the mid-90s to near 100°F in prior days, with limited afternoon convection expected to provide slight cooling without widespread rain. Model runs show low precipitation chances and dew points in the mid-70s, supporting heat indices above 105°F but limiting extreme outliers. Any late-day sea breeze or scattered storms could cap readings near the lower end of the favored range, while stronger subsidence would push toward 96-97°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the William P. Hobby Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,642End Date
Jul 25, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders are heavily favoring 94-95°F (44% implied probability) as the peak temperature in Houston on July 25, 2026, followed by 92-93°F (27%), reflecting consensus from National Weather Service and model guidance showing typical midsummer conditions under a building subtropical ridge. Normal highs for late July at Houston Intercontinental Airport average 94-96°F, driven by strong insolation, southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico, and minimal cloud cover early in the day. Recent developments include an expanding heat dome across Texas that has produced highs in the mid-90s to near 100°F in prior days, with limited afternoon convection expected to provide slight cooling without widespread rain. Model runs show low precipitation chances and dew points in the mid-70s, supporting heat indices above 105°F but limiting extreme outliers. Any late-day sea breeze or scattered storms could cap readings near the lower end of the favored range, while stronger subsidence would push toward 96-97°F.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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