Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 16°C as Istanbul's highest temperature on April 27, reflecting confirmed observational data from Istanbul Airport (LTFM) METAR reports via NOAA, which peaked at 16°C amid clear skies and strengthening northerly winds that capped daytime heating. This aligns with April climatological averages of 15.3°C highs for the region, influenced by cool Black Sea air masses and typical spring variability under the Saffir-Simpson-influenced seasonal patterns—though not hurricanes, similar steering currents apply. Scenarios challenging this include rare post hoc data revisions from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) or discrepancies across urban heat island stations, but model consensus and real-time airport telemetry solidify the outcome as markets near resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 27?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 27?
16°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$77,990 Vol.
$77,990 Vol.
Apr 27, 2026
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$77,990 Vol.
$77,990 Vol.
Apr 27, 2026
9°C or below
$830 Vol.
No
10°C
$3,327 Vol.
No
11°C
$1,661 Vol.
No
12°C
$3,083 Vol.
No
13°C
$4,524 Vol.
No
14°C
$9,214 Vol.
No
15°C
$19,244 Vol.
No
16°C
$18,852 Vol.
Yes
17°C
$8,340 Vol.
No
18°C
$4,168 Vol.
No
19°C or higher
$4,747 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 16°C as Istanbul's highest temperature on April 27, reflecting confirmed observational data from Istanbul Airport (LTFM) METAR reports via NOAA, which peaked at 16°C amid clear skies and strengthening northerly winds that capped daytime heating. This aligns with April climatological averages of 15.3°C highs for the region, influenced by cool Black Sea air masses and typical spring variability under the Saffir-Simpson-influenced seasonal patterns—though not hurricanes, similar steering currents apply. Scenarios challenging this include rare post hoc data revisions from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) or discrepancies across urban heat island stations, but model consensus and real-time airport telemetry solidify the outcome as markets near resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 25, 2026, 12:17 AM ET
Volume
$77,990End Date
Apr 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 25, 2026, 12:17 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 16°C as Istanbul's highest temperature on April 27, reflecting confirmed observational data from Istanbul Airport (LTFM) METAR reports via NOAA, which peaked at 16°C amid clear skies and strengthening northerly winds that capped daytime heating. This aligns with April climatological averages of 15.3°C highs for the region, influenced by cool Black Sea air masses and typical spring variability under the Saffir-Simpson-influenced seasonal patterns—though not hurricanes, similar steering currents apply. Scenarios challenging this include rare post hoc data revisions from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) or discrepancies across urban heat island stations, but model consensus and real-time airport telemetry solidify the outcome as markets near resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 27 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$77,990End Date
Apr 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 25, 2026, 12:17 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 16°C as Istanbul's highest temperature on April 27, reflecting confirmed observational data from Istanbul Airport (LTFM) METAR reports via NOAA, which peaked at 16°C amid clear skies and strengthening northerly winds that capped daytime heating. This aligns with April climatological averages of 15.3°C highs for the region, influenced by cool Black Sea air masses and typical spring variability under the Saffir-Simpson-influenced seasonal patterns—though not hurricanes, similar steering currents apply. Scenarios challenging this include rare post hoc data revisions from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) or discrepancies across urban heat island stations, but model consensus and real-time airport telemetry solidify the outcome as markets near resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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