Official observations from Murtala Muhammed International Airport (DNMM) in Lagos, reported via METAR at midday on May 1, confirm the highest temperature reached 34°C, driving the market-implied 100% probability for this outcome and near-certainty among traders risking real capital. This peak aligns with NiMet's 2026 seasonal climate prediction of warmer-than-average daytime temperatures across southern Nigeria in May, amid lingering dry-season heat before the rainy onset, where historical May highs at DNMM average 30-32°C but urban heat island effects in densely built Lagos often elevate readings. Model forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF had anticipated highs near 33°C, with low humidity amplifying heat index values. Realistic challenges include rare post hoc quality control revisions by NiMet if sensor discrepancies emerge across synoptic stations, though verified aviation data provides strong evidential support. Final NiMet daily bulletin expected soon for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lagos on May 1?
Highest temperature in Lagos on May 1?
34°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$36,982 Vol.
$36,982 Vol.
May 1, 2026
28°C or below
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
Yes
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C or higher
No
34°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$36,982 Vol.
$36,982 Vol.
May 1, 2026
28°C or below
$15,274 Vol.
No
29°C
$959 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,390 Vol.
No
31°C
$1,293 Vol.
No
32°C
$2,091 Vol.
No
33°C
$1,697 Vol.
No
34°C
$2,788 Vol.
Yes
35°C
$3,225 Vol.
No
36°C
$2,482 Vol.
No
37°C
$2,785 Vol.
No
38°C or higher
$2,996 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Murtala Muhammed International Airport (DNMM) in Lagos, reported via METAR at midday on May 1, confirm the highest temperature reached 34°C, driving the market-implied 100% probability for this outcome and near-certainty among traders risking real capital. This peak aligns with NiMet's 2026 seasonal climate prediction of warmer-than-average daytime temperatures across southern Nigeria in May, amid lingering dry-season heat before the rainy onset, where historical May highs at DNMM average 30-32°C but urban heat island effects in densely built Lagos often elevate readings. Model forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF had anticipated highs near 33°C, with low humidity amplifying heat index values. Realistic challenges include rare post hoc quality control revisions by NiMet if sensor discrepancies emerge across synoptic stations, though verified aviation data provides strong evidential support. Final NiMet daily bulletin expected soon for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volume
$36,982End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Murtala Muhammed International Airport (DNMM) in Lagos, reported via METAR at midday on May 1, confirm the highest temperature reached 34°C, driving the market-implied 100% probability for this outcome and near-certainty among traders risking real capital. This peak aligns with NiMet's 2026 seasonal climate prediction of warmer-than-average daytime temperatures across southern Nigeria in May, amid lingering dry-season heat before the rainy onset, where historical May highs at DNMM average 30-32°C but urban heat island effects in densely built Lagos often elevate readings. Model forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF had anticipated highs near 33°C, with low humidity amplifying heat index values. Realistic challenges include rare post hoc quality control revisions by NiMet if sensor discrepancies emerge across synoptic stations, though verified aviation data provides strong evidential support. Final NiMet daily bulletin expected soon for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$36,982End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official observations from Murtala Muhammed International Airport (DNMM) in Lagos, reported via METAR at midday on May 1, confirm the highest temperature reached 34°C, driving the market-implied 100% probability for this outcome and near-certainty among traders risking real capital. This peak aligns with NiMet's 2026 seasonal climate prediction of warmer-than-average daytime temperatures across southern Nigeria in May, amid lingering dry-season heat before the rainy onset, where historical May highs at DNMM average 30-32°C but urban heat island effects in densely built Lagos often elevate readings. Model forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF had anticipated highs near 33°C, with low humidity amplifying heat index values. Realistic challenges include rare post hoc quality control revisions by NiMet if sensor discrepancies emerge across synoptic stations, though verified aviation data provides strong evidential support. Final NiMet daily bulletin expected soon for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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