PAGASA observations at the Science Garden station in Quezon City—the official reference for Manila—recorded a peak air temperature of 34°C around midday on April 21, 2026, aligning precisely with pre-dawn forecasts under easterlies bringing partly cloudy skies and isolated rainshowers that capped solar heating. This trader consensus reflects the dry season's typical April highs averaging 33–35°C, moderated by moderate ESE winds and humidity around 60%, with urban heat island effects offset by cloud cover. Model runs from PAGASA consistently projected no exceedance of 34°C, locking in near-certainty. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clearing and subsidence for late-afternoon intensification to 35°C before sunset, though current data and declining solar angle make this improbable. Final daily summary expected from PAGASA this evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on April 21?
Highest temperature in Manila on April 21?
34°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$45,971 Vol.
$45,971 Vol.
Apr 21, 2026
28°C or below
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
Yes
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C or higher
No
34°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$45,971 Vol.
$45,971 Vol.
Apr 21, 2026
28°C or below
$1,096 Vol.
No
29°C
$1,846 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,765 Vol.
No
31°C
$2,268 Vol.
No
32°C
$3,594 Vol.
No
33°C
$4,365 Vol.
No
34°C
$11,396 Vol.
Yes
35°C
$7,375 Vol.
No
36°C
$8,156 Vol.
No
37°C
$2,225 Vol.
No
38°C or higher
$1,884 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.PAGASA observations at the Science Garden station in Quezon City—the official reference for Manila—recorded a peak air temperature of 34°C around midday on April 21, 2026, aligning precisely with pre-dawn forecasts under easterlies bringing partly cloudy skies and isolated rainshowers that capped solar heating. This trader consensus reflects the dry season's typical April highs averaging 33–35°C, moderated by moderate ESE winds and humidity around 60%, with urban heat island effects offset by cloud cover. Model runs from PAGASA consistently projected no exceedance of 34°C, locking in near-certainty. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clearing and subsidence for late-afternoon intensification to 35°C before sunset, though current data and declining solar angle make this improbable. Final daily summary expected from PAGASA this evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 19, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Volume
$45,971End Date
Apr 21, 2026Market Opened
Apr 19, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.PAGASA observations at the Science Garden station in Quezon City—the official reference for Manila—recorded a peak air temperature of 34°C around midday on April 21, 2026, aligning precisely with pre-dawn forecasts under easterlies bringing partly cloudy skies and isolated rainshowers that capped solar heating. This trader consensus reflects the dry season's typical April highs averaging 33–35°C, moderated by moderate ESE winds and humidity around 60%, with urban heat island effects offset by cloud cover. Model runs from PAGASA consistently projected no exceedance of 34°C, locking in near-certainty. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clearing and subsidence for late-afternoon intensification to 35°C before sunset, though current data and declining solar angle make this improbable. Final daily summary expected from PAGASA this evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$45,971End Date
Apr 21, 2026Market Opened
Apr 19, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
PAGASA observations at the Science Garden station in Quezon City—the official reference for Manila—recorded a peak air temperature of 34°C around midday on April 21, 2026, aligning precisely with pre-dawn forecasts under easterlies bringing partly cloudy skies and isolated rainshowers that capped solar heating. This trader consensus reflects the dry season's typical April highs averaging 33–35°C, moderated by moderate ESE winds and humidity around 60%, with urban heat island effects offset by cloud cover. Model runs from PAGASA consistently projected no exceedance of 34°C, locking in near-certainty. A realistic challenge would require unexpected clearing and subsidence for late-afternoon intensification to 35°C before sunset, though current data and declining solar angle make this improbable. Final daily summary expected from PAGASA this evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions