**Trader consensus around 31–33°C for Manila’s June 25 maximum reflects PAGASA’s official outlook of 26–32°C amid 30% rain chance, consistent with June’s southwest monsoon regime.** Scattered clouds and isolated thunderstorms typical of the season limit surface heating, while light southeasterly winds and high humidity moderate peaks near the long-term average of 32°C. Global model runs show minor spread on timing and coverage of convection, keeping 31°C and 33°C within a narrow implied-probability band. Final resolution hinges on the 24-hour maximum recorded at official stations; any shift in forecast guidance or clearer skies could quickly rebalance the tightly clustered market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on June 25?
Highest temperature in Manila on June 25?
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$66,908 Vol.
$66,908 Vol.
Jun 25, 2026
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$66,908 Vol.
$66,908 Vol.
Jun 25, 2026
26°C or below
$1,457 Vol.
No
27°C
$264 Vol.
No
28°C
$990 Vol.
No
29°C
$13,705 Vol.
No
30°C
$6,877 Vol.
No
31°C
$19,397 Vol.
No
32°C
$13,484 Vol.
Yes
33°C
$4,247 Vol.
No
34°C
$3,450 Vol.
No
35°C
$1,249 Vol.
No
36°C or higher
$1,789 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus around 31–33°C for Manila’s June 25 maximum reflects PAGASA’s official outlook of 26–32°C amid 30% rain chance, consistent with June’s southwest monsoon regime.** Scattered clouds and isolated thunderstorms typical of the season limit surface heating, while light southeasterly winds and high humidity moderate peaks near the long-term average of 32°C. Global model runs show minor spread on timing and coverage of convection, keeping 31°C and 33°C within a narrow implied-probability band. Final resolution hinges on the 24-hour maximum recorded at official stations; any shift in forecast guidance or clearer skies could quickly rebalance the tightly clustered market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$66,908End Date
Jun 25, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus around 31–33°C for Manila’s June 25 maximum reflects PAGASA’s official outlook of 26–32°C amid 30% rain chance, consistent with June’s southwest monsoon regime.** Scattered clouds and isolated thunderstorms typical of the season limit surface heating, while light southeasterly winds and high humidity moderate peaks near the long-term average of 32°C. Global model runs show minor spread on timing and coverage of convection, keeping 31°C and 33°C within a narrow implied-probability band. Final resolution hinges on the 24-hour maximum recorded at official stations; any shift in forecast guidance or clearer skies could quickly rebalance the tightly clustered market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$66,908End Date
Jun 25, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus around 31–33°C for Manila’s June 25 maximum reflects PAGASA’s official outlook of 26–32°C amid 30% rain chance, consistent with June’s southwest monsoon regime.** Scattered clouds and isolated thunderstorms typical of the season limit surface heating, while light southeasterly winds and high humidity moderate peaks near the long-term average of 32°C. Global model runs show minor spread on timing and coverage of convection, keeping 31°C and 33°C within a narrow implied-probability band. Final resolution hinges on the 24-hour maximum recorded at official stations; any shift in forecast guidance or clearer skies could quickly rebalance the tightly clustered market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions