Official meteorological observations from Mexico City's primary stations, including Benito Juárez International Airport and Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) monitors, confirm the highest temperature on May 3 reached exactly 27°C around midday, solidifying trader consensus at virtually 100% implied probability for this outcome. This positioning reflects the influence of stationary Frente Frío 48, which introduced cloud cover, scattered showers, and gusty winds that capped daytime heating despite seasonal norms of 25–28°C highs in early May. Climatological data shows May 3 as one of the warmer days on average (26.3°C), but frontal dynamics overrode potential for greater warmth. Realistic challenges are slim—only a post hoc data revision from quality control or an overlooked peripheral station reading above 27°C—but SMN's final reports typically lock in such measurements within 24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on May 3?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 3?
27°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$105,433 Vol.
$105,433 Vol.
May 3, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$105,433 Vol.
$105,433 Vol.
May 3, 2026
20°C or below
$8,890 Vol.
No
21°C
$10,262 Vol.
No
22°C
$3,779 Vol.
No
23°C
$3,722 Vol.
No
24°C
$4,808 Vol.
No
25°C
$3,038 Vol.
No
26°C
$25,704 Vol.
No
27°C
$8,137 Vol.
Yes
28°C
$13,362 Vol.
No
29°C
$9,615 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$14,114 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official meteorological observations from Mexico City's primary stations, including Benito Juárez International Airport and Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) monitors, confirm the highest temperature on May 3 reached exactly 27°C around midday, solidifying trader consensus at virtually 100% implied probability for this outcome. This positioning reflects the influence of stationary Frente Frío 48, which introduced cloud cover, scattered showers, and gusty winds that capped daytime heating despite seasonal norms of 25–28°C highs in early May. Climatological data shows May 3 as one of the warmer days on average (26.3°C), but frontal dynamics overrode potential for greater warmth. Realistic challenges are slim—only a post hoc data revision from quality control or an overlooked peripheral station reading above 27°C—but SMN's final reports typically lock in such measurements within 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 1, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$105,433End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official meteorological observations from Mexico City's primary stations, including Benito Juárez International Airport and Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) monitors, confirm the highest temperature on May 3 reached exactly 27°C around midday, solidifying trader consensus at virtually 100% implied probability for this outcome. This positioning reflects the influence of stationary Frente Frío 48, which introduced cloud cover, scattered showers, and gusty winds that capped daytime heating despite seasonal norms of 25–28°C highs in early May. Climatological data shows May 3 as one of the warmer days on average (26.3°C), but frontal dynamics overrode potential for greater warmth. Realistic challenges are slim—only a post hoc data revision from quality control or an overlooked peripheral station reading above 27°C—but SMN's final reports typically lock in such measurements within 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$105,433End Date
May 3, 2026Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official meteorological observations from Mexico City's primary stations, including Benito Juárez International Airport and Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) monitors, confirm the highest temperature on May 3 reached exactly 27°C around midday, solidifying trader consensus at virtually 100% implied probability for this outcome. This positioning reflects the influence of stationary Frente Frío 48, which introduced cloud cover, scattered showers, and gusty winds that capped daytime heating despite seasonal norms of 25–28°C highs in early May. Climatological data shows May 3 as one of the warmer days on average (26.3°C), but frontal dynamics overrode potential for greater warmth. Realistic challenges are slim—only a post hoc data revision from quality control or an overlooked peripheral station reading above 27°C—but SMN's final reports typically lock in such measurements within 24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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