The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) latest forecast, issued this morning, projects Mexico City's highest temperature at Benito Juárez International Airport to reach 29-31°C today amid an ongoing heat wave affecting northern areas, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for 27°C or higher. Morning observations confirm minima of 15-17°C with clear skies early, ideal for daytime heating under typical May climatology where averages hover near 26°C but current high-pressure patterns boost peaks. Global models align, showing minimal cloud interference before afternoon isolated showers (low 0.1-5 mm probability). Realistic challenges include unexpected heavy cloud cover or convective activity capping temps below 27°C, though SMN guidance deems this unlikely; monitor airport data and next update for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on May 5?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 5?
27°C or higher 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$57,736 Vol.
$57,736 Vol.
May 5, 2026
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C or higher
Yes
27°C or higher 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$57,736 Vol.
$57,736 Vol.
May 5, 2026
17°C or below
$1,035 Vol.
No
18°C
$773 Vol.
No
19°C
$467 Vol.
No
20°C
$850 Vol.
No
21°C
$10,523 Vol.
No
22°C
$13,481 Vol.
No
23°C
$10,963 Vol.
No
24°C
$4,197 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,945 Vol.
No
26°C
$6,509 Vol.
No
27°C or higher
$5,993 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) latest forecast, issued this morning, projects Mexico City's highest temperature at Benito Juárez International Airport to reach 29-31°C today amid an ongoing heat wave affecting northern areas, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for 27°C or higher. Morning observations confirm minima of 15-17°C with clear skies early, ideal for daytime heating under typical May climatology where averages hover near 26°C but current high-pressure patterns boost peaks. Global models align, showing minimal cloud interference before afternoon isolated showers (low 0.1-5 mm probability). Realistic challenges include unexpected heavy cloud cover or convective activity capping temps below 27°C, though SMN guidance deems this unlikely; monitor airport data and next update for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Volume
$57,736End Date
May 5, 2026Market Opened
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) latest forecast, issued this morning, projects Mexico City's highest temperature at Benito Juárez International Airport to reach 29-31°C today amid an ongoing heat wave affecting northern areas, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for 27°C or higher. Morning observations confirm minima of 15-17°C with clear skies early, ideal for daytime heating under typical May climatology where averages hover near 26°C but current high-pressure patterns boost peaks. Global models align, showing minimal cloud interference before afternoon isolated showers (low 0.1-5 mm probability). Realistic challenges include unexpected heavy cloud cover or convective activity capping temps below 27°C, though SMN guidance deems this unlikely; monitor airport data and next update for shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$57,736End Date
May 5, 2026Market Opened
May 3, 2026, 12:21 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) latest forecast, issued this morning, projects Mexico City's highest temperature at Benito Juárez International Airport to reach 29-31°C today amid an ongoing heat wave affecting northern areas, driving trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for 27°C or higher. Morning observations confirm minima of 15-17°C with clear skies early, ideal for daytime heating under typical May climatology where averages hover near 26°C but current high-pressure patterns boost peaks. Global models align, showing minimal cloud interference before afternoon isolated showers (low 0.1-5 mm probability). Realistic challenges include unexpected heavy cloud cover or convective activity capping temps below 27°C, though SMN guidance deems this unlikely; monitor airport data and next update for shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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