Recent ensemble forecasts from major models place Moscow's July 3 maximum near 24–26°C under partly cloudy skies and light northerly flow, explaining why 25°C, 26°C, and 27°C together command over 65% of market-implied probability. Subtle differences in high-pressure ridge strength and daytime insolation versus any late-day cloud increase or brief shower could shift the peak by 1–2°C, creating the tight clustering around these outcomes. July climatology (mean high ~23–25°C) provides a baseline, while the two-day lead time means morning model runs and local observations will be the next key updates traders monitor.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on July 3?
Highest temperature in Moscow on July 3?
27°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$92,487 Vol.
$92,487 Vol.
Jul 3, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$92,487 Vol.
$92,487 Vol.
Jul 3, 2026
22°C or below
$2,711 Vol.
No
23°C
$9,790 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,860 Vol.
No
25°C
$23,133 Vol.
No
26°C
$16,944 Vol.
No
27°C
$11,323 Vol.
Yes
28°C
$8,255 Vol.
No
29°C
$4,843 Vol.
No
30°C
$5,969 Vol.
No
31°C
$3,772 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$2,885 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major models place Moscow's July 3 maximum near 24–26°C under partly cloudy skies and light northerly flow, explaining why 25°C, 26°C, and 27°C together command over 65% of market-implied probability. Subtle differences in high-pressure ridge strength and daytime insolation versus any late-day cloud increase or brief shower could shift the peak by 1–2°C, creating the tight clustering around these outcomes. July climatology (mean high ~23–25°C) provides a baseline, while the two-day lead time means morning model runs and local observations will be the next key updates traders monitor.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$92,487End Date
Jul 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major models place Moscow's July 3 maximum near 24–26°C under partly cloudy skies and light northerly flow, explaining why 25°C, 26°C, and 27°C together command over 65% of market-implied probability. Subtle differences in high-pressure ridge strength and daytime insolation versus any late-day cloud increase or brief shower could shift the peak by 1–2°C, creating the tight clustering around these outcomes. July climatology (mean high ~23–25°C) provides a baseline, while the two-day lead time means morning model runs and local observations will be the next key updates traders monitor.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$92,487End Date
Jul 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent ensemble forecasts from major models place Moscow's July 3 maximum near 24–26°C under partly cloudy skies and light northerly flow, explaining why 25°C, 26°C, and 27°C together command over 65% of market-implied probability. Subtle differences in high-pressure ridge strength and daytime insolation versus any late-day cloud increase or brief shower could shift the peak by 1–2°C, creating the tight clustering around these outcomes. July climatology (mean high ~23–25°C) provides a baseline, while the two-day lead time means morning model runs and local observations will be the next key updates traders monitor.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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