Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 21°C high temperature in Shenzhen on April 24, backed by official observational data from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station, the market's resolution source under China Meteorological Administration (CMA) guidelines. Persistent thundershowers, overcast skies, and light rain—driven by a weak cold frontal passage over Guangdong introducing northerly winds and high humidity (around 80-90%)—severely limited solar insolation and promoted evaporative cooling, capping the daily maximum at 70°F (21°C) per timeanddate records, well below late-April climatological averages of 26°C. Hourly observations hovered near 20°C, aligning with CMA and model ensemble forecasts issued after heavy April 23 storms. Realistic challenges, such as a data revision from an overlooked sensor peak, are improbable given consistent readings; final CMA confirmation seals resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on April 24?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 24?
21°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$138,816 Vol.
$138,816 Vol.
Apr 24, 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Yes
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
21°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$138,816 Vol.
$138,816 Vol.
Apr 24, 2026
18°C or below
$2,213 Vol.
No
19°C
$25,545 Vol.
No
20°C
$31,353 Vol.
No
21°C
$25,813 Vol.
Yes
22°C
$12,737 Vol.
No
23°C
$6,479 Vol.
No
24°C
$8,404 Vol.
No
25°C
$9,117 Vol.
No
26°C
$7,381 Vol.
No
27°C
$5,104 Vol.
No
28°C or higher
$4,669 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 21°C high temperature in Shenzhen on April 24, backed by official observational data from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station, the market's resolution source under China Meteorological Administration (CMA) guidelines. Persistent thundershowers, overcast skies, and light rain—driven by a weak cold frontal passage over Guangdong introducing northerly winds and high humidity (around 80-90%)—severely limited solar insolation and promoted evaporative cooling, capping the daily maximum at 70°F (21°C) per timeanddate records, well below late-April climatological averages of 26°C. Hourly observations hovered near 20°C, aligning with CMA and model ensemble forecasts issued after heavy April 23 storms. Realistic challenges, such as a data revision from an overlooked sensor peak, are improbable given consistent readings; final CMA confirmation seals resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 22, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
Volume
$138,816End Date
Apr 24, 2026Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 12:22 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 21°C high temperature in Shenzhen on April 24, backed by official observational data from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station, the market's resolution source under China Meteorological Administration (CMA) guidelines. Persistent thundershowers, overcast skies, and light rain—driven by a weak cold frontal passage over Guangdong introducing northerly winds and high humidity (around 80-90%)—severely limited solar insolation and promoted evaporative cooling, capping the daily maximum at 70°F (21°C) per timeanddate records, well below late-April climatological averages of 26°C. Hourly observations hovered near 20°C, aligning with CMA and model ensemble forecasts issued after heavy April 23 storms. Realistic challenges, such as a data revision from an overlooked sensor peak, are improbable given consistent readings; final CMA confirmation seals resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$138,816End Date
Apr 24, 2026Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 12:22 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 21°C high temperature in Shenzhen on April 24, backed by official observational data from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station, the market's resolution source under China Meteorological Administration (CMA) guidelines. Persistent thundershowers, overcast skies, and light rain—driven by a weak cold frontal passage over Guangdong introducing northerly winds and high humidity (around 80-90%)—severely limited solar insolation and promoted evaporative cooling, capping the daily maximum at 70°F (21°C) per timeanddate records, well below late-April climatological averages of 26°C. Hourly observations hovered near 20°C, aligning with CMA and model ensemble forecasts issued after heavy April 23 storms. Realistic challenges, such as a data revision from an overlooked sensor peak, are improbable given consistent readings; final CMA confirmation seals resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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