Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA GFS models, aligned with Israel Meteorological Service guidance, place Tel Aviv’s July 6 maximum in the 30–32°C range under a moderate high-pressure ridge typical of eastern Mediterranean summer conditions. Sea-breeze moderation along the coast and minimal synoptic forcing keep extremes unlikely, consistent with July climatology where daily highs average near 31–32°C. Recent model runs show low spread, with any late intensification of the ridge or coastal trough the main variables that could shift the distribution by one degree. Israel Meteorological Service updates and final ensemble consensus ahead of July 5–6 remain the key near-term inputs for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 6?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on July 6?
33°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$70,925 Vol.
$70,925 Vol.
Jul 6, 2026
28°C or below
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
Yes
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C or higher
No
33°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$70,925 Vol.
$70,925 Vol.
Jul 6, 2026
28°C or below
$3,230 Vol.
No
29°C
$2,721 Vol.
No
30°C
$3,163 Vol.
No
31°C
$14,702 Vol.
No
32°C
$31,136 Vol.
No
33°C
$6,927 Vol.
Yes
34°C
$3,946 Vol.
No
35°C
$2,893 Vol.
No
36°C
$1,473 Vol.
No
37°C
$252 Vol.
No
38°C or higher
$482 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA GFS models, aligned with Israel Meteorological Service guidance, place Tel Aviv’s July 6 maximum in the 30–32°C range under a moderate high-pressure ridge typical of eastern Mediterranean summer conditions. Sea-breeze moderation along the coast and minimal synoptic forcing keep extremes unlikely, consistent with July climatology where daily highs average near 31–32°C. Recent model runs show low spread, with any late intensification of the ridge or coastal trough the main variables that could shift the distribution by one degree. Israel Meteorological Service updates and final ensemble consensus ahead of July 5–6 remain the key near-term inputs for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 4, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$70,925End Date
Jul 6, 2026Market Opened
Jul 4, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA GFS models, aligned with Israel Meteorological Service guidance, place Tel Aviv’s July 6 maximum in the 30–32°C range under a moderate high-pressure ridge typical of eastern Mediterranean summer conditions. Sea-breeze moderation along the coast and minimal synoptic forcing keep extremes unlikely, consistent with July climatology where daily highs average near 31–32°C. Recent model runs show low spread, with any late intensification of the ridge or coastal trough the main variables that could shift the distribution by one degree. Israel Meteorological Service updates and final ensemble consensus ahead of July 5–6 remain the key near-term inputs for traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$70,925End Date
Jul 6, 2026Market Opened
Jul 4, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA GFS models, aligned with Israel Meteorological Service guidance, place Tel Aviv’s July 6 maximum in the 30–32°C range under a moderate high-pressure ridge typical of eastern Mediterranean summer conditions. Sea-breeze moderation along the coast and minimal synoptic forcing keep extremes unlikely, consistent with July climatology where daily highs average near 31–32°C. Recent model runs show low spread, with any late intensification of the ridge or coastal trough the main variables that could shift the distribution by one degree. Israel Meteorological Service updates and final ensemble consensus ahead of July 5–6 remain the key near-term inputs for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions