Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 22°C in Tokyo today, driven by official observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency's automated station at Tokyo Haneda Airport, which recorded a peak of precisely 22°C amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. This aligns with mid-April climatological norms, where Tokyo's average daily highs hover around 19–20°C, influenced by post-cherry blossom seasonal warming and Pacific high-pressure steering patterns limiting further intensification. Scenarios that could realistically challenge this include a rare post-sunset measurement revision or data anomaly from equipment calibration—both improbable given JMA's rigorous hourly verification protocols—but traders await final daily summary for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 20?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 20?
22°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$169,507 Vol.
$169,507 Vol.
Apr 20, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$169,507 Vol.
$169,507 Vol.
Apr 20, 2026
14°C or below
$1,618 Vol.
No
15°C
$1,889 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,996 Vol.
No
17°C
$2,259 Vol.
No
18°C
$3,936 Vol.
No
19°C
$8,259 Vol.
No
20°C
$9,226 Vol.
No
21°C
$12,335 Vol.
No
22°C
$49,070 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$30,822 Vol.
No
24°C or higher
$48,098 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 22°C in Tokyo today, driven by official observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency's automated station at Tokyo Haneda Airport, which recorded a peak of precisely 22°C amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. This aligns with mid-April climatological norms, where Tokyo's average daily highs hover around 19–20°C, influenced by post-cherry blossom seasonal warming and Pacific high-pressure steering patterns limiting further intensification. Scenarios that could realistically challenge this include a rare post-sunset measurement revision or data anomaly from equipment calibration—both improbable given JMA's rigorous hourly verification protocols—but traders await final daily summary for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 18, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Volume
$169,507End Date
Apr 20, 2026Market Opened
Apr 18, 2026, 12:21 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 22°C in Tokyo today, driven by official observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency's automated station at Tokyo Haneda Airport, which recorded a peak of precisely 22°C amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. This aligns with mid-April climatological norms, where Tokyo's average daily highs hover around 19–20°C, influenced by post-cherry blossom seasonal warming and Pacific high-pressure steering patterns limiting further intensification. Scenarios that could realistically challenge this include a rare post-sunset measurement revision or data anomaly from equipment calibration—both improbable given JMA's rigorous hourly verification protocols—but traders await final daily summary for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$169,507End Date
Apr 20, 2026Market Opened
Apr 18, 2026, 12:21 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 22°C in Tokyo today, driven by official observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency's automated station at Tokyo Haneda Airport, which recorded a peak of precisely 22°C amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. This aligns with mid-April climatological norms, where Tokyo's average daily highs hover around 19–20°C, influenced by post-cherry blossom seasonal warming and Pacific high-pressure steering patterns limiting further intensification. Scenarios that could realistically challenge this include a rare post-sunset measurement revision or data anomaly from equipment calibration—both improbable given JMA's rigorous hourly verification protocols—but traders await final daily summary for market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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